RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:L.M.ESame people that are off by over 100 K tonnes this year.
Reality is this. There's lots of moving parts so it's difficult to make accurate predictions. Predictions are based on models, models are based on assumptions. There is trillions of post COVID infrastructure spending coming from countries other than China. Just as demand surprised to the upside this year I think the same think will happen 2022.
In the meantime now that the LME has cracked down on shadow inventory, drawdowns on the exchange are more representative of actual gaps in supply and demand.