Post by
materialsgirl on Jul 11, 2016 10:22pm
shortage normally means less production than demand
Precious metals are different but still production is a main driver of maintaining equilibrium
Here is the forecast from an expert in the field; Silver Wheaton
2015 890 million ounces
2016 870
2017 840
2018 800
2019 780
2020 770
That is about a 13% or 14% drop.
If we get even a modest 6% growth in demand over 5 years then we have a 20% spread between supply and demand
The supply would increase if we get higher commodity prices but we would need higher prices almost immediately to motivate financial houses to finance big capital spending. The lag time would be 4 or 5 years to getting a significant number of new mines open and ramped up.