RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Obvious AgendaI've no great need to continue to argue. You go right ahead, though, if you feel it is profitable to do so.
A few comments though:
- One of your major arguments against SRT was that they would have trouble refinancing mortgages next year. Well, that seems to have been completely taken care of. Not only are there no maturities before 2023, but the company's efforts have garnered them a savings of 4 cents/sh/yr. That should help with cf going forward.
- You mentioned CUF.un as an example of what could happen here. I know little about that company, but it's pretty obvious that, when they cut their distribution back in 2017, the unit price went up considerably over the next 6 months. So, it would seem, price movement is related to expectations. That cut was permanent, whereas any covid cut at SRT (if it happens at all) would likely be temporary.
- Continuing, the price here has been hit hard, which to me indicates an expectation of a cut in distribution. To me, as long as they can protect their asset base (and a cut would do exactly that), any cut would be temporary. So, IMHO, how the price would react to a cut depends on whether or not the cut is better or worse than expectations. The price, just like for CUF.un back in 2017, could go up. In any event, value would most likely return after the covid adventure has terminated.
- I'm still not convinced that a cut will happen. While some rents are subject to deferrals, some tenants will have access to gov't funds to help them pay rents. Additionally, the company's locations seem to be good, so re-leasing should be doable, especially once things open up again. Things seem to be opening up starting about now.
- I disagree with you over the likelihood and impact of inflation. Western governments have shown an uncanny ability to control interest rates and inflation and I think that will (and in fact must) continue. Also, many REIT investors think that inflation will destroy their investment because interest costs will ruin profitability. What they neglect to consider is that rents also escalate and that landlords will anticipate rates and lock them in before inflation takes full hold. Having said that, I should go back to my comment that I don't think govts will allow big rate increases. In part, they'll do it to protect rather fragile economies and in part they'll do it to protect budgets.
Regardless of all of this, if you don't want to own the units, please don't. I'm sure I don't want to own anything you're posting on. I also don't want to post on them (as a matter of decorum), but each to his or her own.