RE:RE:Are the dividends safe?I have posted most of the following earlier, but I thought is was worth repeating in answer to the discussion.
There are about 300 million registered vehicles on the road in the USA.
Each year, there are 18 million new registrations and 13 million deregistrations
As expected, the number of net vehicles on the road in the USA increases by 5 million per year.
Unless American buying behavior changes, approximately 350 million car registrations by 2030
In the first half of 2012, there were 213,000 new EV registrations in the USA. Lets assume the number increases in the 2nd half of the year and the annual total is 500,000 EV's. That means that 17.5 million new ICE vehicles will be registered this year.
In 2018, it was predicted that there would be about 19 million EV's on the road in America. the number has now been increased to 30 million on the road by 2030. Biden is hoping to ramp EV sales up to 50% of new car sales by 2030 IF, and it is a big IF, everything goes right for the movement. At this point in time, the 50% number is viewed as very optimistic.
Let's do the math.
Lets assume that EV sales doubel to 1 million EVs in 2022. That means 17 million new ICE vehicles will be put on the road. For now, lets assume that all deregistered vehicles are ICE vehicles which is not true. So, 17 million ICE vehicles are registered and 13 million are deregistered. That means by the end of 2022, there will be 304 million ICE vehicles on the road.
If EV sales double again in 2023 up to 2 million (not sure this target can be met as Musk keeps telling us that the supply-side, not the demand-side is the issue), American will see 3 million more ICE vehicles on the road in 2023 which makes the total 307 million.
If production of ICE vehicles continue to ramp up by 1 million cars per year continuing the remarkable growth pattern, there would still be 310 million ICE vehicles on the road by 2025. If the same pattern of sales continued (adding production of 1 million more EV's per year) the total number of EV's on the road would drop to 295 million by the end of 2030. However, when you factor in the worn out batteries (which in effect make the EV's worthless), and accident write-offs, there will likely be a few million EV's deregistered by 2030, which means that by 2030, there will be approximately that same number of ICE vehicles on the road as there are today.
The politicians that talk about banning gasoline sales by 2030 must be taking advantage of the relaxed weed laws, or they just haven't done the math, or both.
Oil E&P has been dropping since 2015 and last year and this year have fallen off a cliff. A number of OPEC countries are currently unable to increase E&P as they are broke and it will take awhile for them to get back in the game. In fact, OPEC+ is currently unable to keep up with their agenda of adding 400,000 bpd of production.
OPEC members that can increase production are flipping America the bird because Trump told them to GFThemselves when he opened up fracking and slashed purchases of Middle East oil. With America pulling out of the middle east in terms of both demand and protection, we now have Russia filling the void. Why would Russia or the Middle East (who control oil now) do American any favours?
Bringing this full circle, America is now being bent over a barrel (hehe) just like Russia is using Nord Stream 2 to make Europe comply.
Who is going to jump to help America?
The Middle East and Russia?
Venezuela?
Maybe the Americans should stop ****ing Canada up the hoop and figure out a way to contain GHG's like Alberta is working on.
Surely it would be more reliable/easier/cost effective to figure out carbon capture for production/buildings/vehicles than to try to transfer to massively inefficient and unrealiable renewables overnight.
Even if the Left could pull off a miracle, they would still have to figure out a world without plastics and all the other products made with hydrocarbons. Good luck with that!
I think it is pretty safe to assume that oil prices are not going back down to $40 for awhile (if ever) and if they did, it would just be short term at the whims of the traders or unforseen vents.
Cenovus doubled their dividend today and introduced a NCIB. The major American oil companies have been doing the same thing. Maybe the SU mgmt is not as stupid as some on this board think.