Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Alternate Symbol(s): SU

Energy Oil & Gas Integrated

Suncor Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated energy company. The Company's segments include Oil Sands, Exploration and Production (E&P), and Refining and Marketing. Its operations include oil sands development, production and upgrading, offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining in Canada and the United States and its Petro-Canada retail and wholesale distribution networks, including Canada’s Electric Highway, a coast-to-coast network of fast-charging electric vehicles (EV) stations. Petro-Canada has a network of over 1,800 retail and wholesale locations across Canada, providing customers with a wide variety of fuel and service offerings including low-carbon fuel options. It is developing petroleum resources while advancing the transition to a low-emissions future through investment in power and renewable fuels. It also wholly owns the Fort Hills Project, which is located in Alberta's Athabasca region, approximately 90 kilometers north of Fort McMurray.

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Suncor Energy Inc. > Crude Net Positioning

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Post by MigraineCallon May 21, 2023 7:26am

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Post# 35458265

Crude Net Positioning

If you are an oil bull, it is important to know just how far offside you sit relative to where the market is, and how alone you are from the herd.

The last time net crude positioning was this low, the world was coming to an end with the pandemic, and I took bullish positions on producers. I used leverage to make 8 figures in upside profits as it rebounded from such extreme oversold bearish positions, at a time when producers balance sheets were far worse than they are now.

Due to massive unwinding of crude longs since 2018 and particularly over the last year, net crude positioning is now at levels as low as or lower than when oil went negative in the pandemic 2020 low.

Historically, bearish crude position levels only stay this low for a short while, a fleeting moment, before spiking up. Look at the chart.

For the contrarian investor, crude positioning today is at levels that present tremendous opportunity should the market start heading the other direction and shorts cover due to a supply demand imbalance combined with a catalyst of a geopolitical event or supply disruption.

What could be the event be that triggers the next FOMO short covering bullish stampede ? Debt ceiling resolution? Lower inflation print? Rate holding or rate cut? Peace in Ukraine? Putin losing grip on power? Middle East war? Sockboy choking on a G7 wasabi sushi roll? Many many things...

On the other hand, perhaps the market has priced it right, and the modern economy and society as we know it is indeed coming to an end, collapsing into a deep depression Mad Max style. The end of oil is near, and the population of the earth will need to learn to hunt, rob, fight, and forage for bugs, berries, and edible roots. Survivors in the future will be able to see what happened to us from the cloud as it will be uploaded from the dashcams of the last remaining EVs that were using solar power.

Charts on crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in Brent and WTI futures and options combined, latest value is May 16.

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