Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Alternate Symbol(s): SU

Energy Oil & Gas Integrated

Suncor Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated energy company. The Company's segments include Oil Sands, Exploration and Production (E&P), and Refining and Marketing. Its operations include oil sands development, production and upgrading, offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining in Canada and the United States and its Petro-Canada retail and wholesale distribution networks, including Canada’s Electric Highway, a coast-to-coast network of fast-charging electric vehicles (EV) stations. Petro-Canada has a network of over 1,800 retail and wholesale locations across Canada, providing customers with a wide variety of fuel and service offerings including low-carbon fuel options. It is developing petroleum resources while advancing the transition to a low-emissions future through investment in power and renewable fuels. It also wholly owns the Fort Hills Project, which is located in Alberta's Athabasca region, approximately 90 kilometers north of Fort McMurray.

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Suncor Energy Inc. > Crude Net Positioning

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Post by MigraineCallon Jul 02, 2023 8:28pm

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Post# 35524442

Crude Net Positioning

Excellent take from Paulo Macro on Twitter:

Think about where we are now - the positioning. Here is the managed money net long in crude oil futures + options. On Tuesday we saw a decline of approximately 35,000 net long contracts from the prior week.

This level is now in line with the March low and the Jan2016 $30 low when most of US shale went bankrupt. It’s lower than the Jan2019 $45 low post the 4Q18 recession scare/JPow mini-tantrum.

Can we flush in the short term? I guess. But specs are almost flat here. The last time we saw a net short position by specs in oil was Oct-Nov 2008… it took the most severe, global, deflationary financial crisis and with major institutional failures to precipitate that.

Even a modestly backwardated curve like today (less steep than 6m ago to be sure) costs money to be short, on top of margin which now comes with a higher rate too. To make money short you are counting on a financial/industry crisis worse than 2015, on par with GFC.

But what if it doesn’t materialize? I am not saying longs need a “soft landing” or “no landing” to make money. I am saying shorts need a GFC to make real money so that current positioning pays them.

The odds and risk/reward is turning fast in here. Pays to stay flexible and ask each day “how are people set up.” And watch for an oil market that no longer drops on bad news…

https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1675634022326628358

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