RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Oil up, Oil stocks down: Consider a pairs trade Great discussion Matt and Jay!
Seems to me that you both are talking about two different things. In that sense both of you are right.
We are here as investors and in particular, investing (or not) in an oil company.
As discussed between myself and Migraine months ago, the long run price of oil will depend on whether there is greater demand destruction due to things like EVs than supply destruction due to declining investment in the production of oil. The overlay to this is whether the result leads to better investment choices than investing in an oil company or not. My vote as illustrated in numerous posts here is that I can make more money investing elsewhere over the medium and long run. In the short run there will be from time to time opportunities to make short term gains which I have done with SU in the past but I do not consider SU as long term core position.
In the short run, as proposed by Migraine and later by Jay, there are dislocations and price inefficiencies in the stock market that can be caused by various factors including a recession and there are strategies that can be employed to take advantage of them. Matt, your points illustrate some of these shorter term inefficiencies which we as investors can take advantage of.
My point in response to both Migraine and Jay is that for the typical investor, what they proposed carry with them higher than normal risks and also require a degree of sophistication beyond that of a typical investor and there are less risky ways to achieve the same objective which is the way I am going about it.