Post by
Obscure1 on Nov 28, 2023 1:26pm
Something to think about
Ford announced today that 400 of its dealers have opted OUT of the EV program. When the deal was first announced1,659 dealers chose the Elite ($1,2 million) opt-in and 261 dealers chose the $500k opt-in
You can't blame the dealers opting out as the program goes against everything holy for them. The dealers will be forced to sell EV's at a fixed price (no price gouging), no oil changes, no brake jobs, and basically very few repairs and definitely no diagnostic work. The dealers would carry minimal inventory which saves borrowing costs but would leave massive empty parking lots which is not a good message.
After making huge promises about it's intentions for EV's, Ford has dialed back its EV growth plans based upon losing an average of $37,000 per vehicle. The company cited that EV sales growth is slowing as the reason. However, EV sales are still increasing on an S curve but new EV buyers are choosing Tesla. Nobody wants overpriced Legacy EV's that can't compete. The only reason Ford has been building the F150 Lightning is because of the scarcity of alternatives.
Now that Ford has slowed down its EV intentions, how will Ford get to mass volume EV sales if they are backing off? They won't
It appears that Ford have just put themselves in the proverbial No Man's Land. The company wants to be an EV player but has chosen not to slow down .
Ford has chosen to milk the ICE market for as much as it can for as long as it can.
Maybe Ford's decision to slow down is based upon the little voice in the back of their mind that Cybertruck will eat their lunch. Ford is a truck company after all and if the public response to the Cybertruck is as strong as it appears, then Ford is in deep trouble.
Tesla has guided for a slow ramp up for Cybertruck and nameplate production of 250,000 vehicles per year. Given that Cybertruck has 2 million plus pre-orders (the previous high was 400,000 pre-orders for a new vehicle which was for the Tesla Model 3), Therefore, legacy auto makers are assuming that it will take ten years for Tesla to work through the back orders and made the logical short term decision to stay the course with their highly profitable ICE vehicles.
Cybertrucks started appearing at Tesla showrooms this week (Tesla stores in malls or at Tesla service centers) in anticipation of the official Cybertruck launch this Thursday. People are lining up for up to an hour just to get in to see the Cybertruck. The auto industry has never witnessed anything like it. The phenomenon resembles the lineups at Apple stores for product launches.
Light vehicle trucks are the bread and butter for Ford and GM and Stellantis in America as the Big 3 have pretty much stopped making cars.
If the demand for Cybertrucks remains huge after the official product launch this week, Tesla is very capable of ramping up production like nobody else. Tesla's real product is its ability to build and ramp cookie cutter factories in a hurry at a fraction of the traditional cost of ICE auto plants. A new Tesla plant can recover its CAPEX cost every 6 months once the plant has ramped up. Crazy.
Ford and GM and Stellantis sell about 2 million pickup trucks per year in the USA. If Tesla decides to ramp up Cybertruck production to 1 million per year or more, which they are very capable doing, the Big 3 are done. Sooner than later.
What has any of this got to do with Suncor?
1) The people that are lining up to check out the "space age" Cybertruck are also looking at, sitting in, and booking test drives for Tesla's other models while they are in the showroom. The "halo" effect of the Cybertruck is expected to boost demand for Tesla's entire lineup. Everyone that buys a Tesla won't be buying an ICE vehicle. That means that ICE sales will drop which in turn means the cost of producing every ICE vehicle goes up as there are fewer vehicles to spread the fixed costs over. The net effect will be that ICE vehicles will become more expensive OR the ICE auto makers will have to slash prices
2) EV's are now cheaper to buy than many ICE vehicles and certainly a lot cheaper to operate. In fact, the math indicates that the total cost of ownership of the Teslay Model Y SUV (the top selling vehicle in the world in 2023) is now less that the total cost of ownership of Toyota's low end Corolla.
3) VW announced this week that a number of their vehicle lines will be shuttered as the company indicated that they can no longer compete on cost. VW is laying off more than 10,000 workers as a result which is a horrible look as those workers will not be building EV's. How many other legacy auto makers are pondering the same decision.
When the dominos start to fall, the transition is going to be fast and ruthless. Ford and other legacy auto makers that have decided to back off EV production are going to have nowhere to turn.
My guess is that we will see Ford reach out to Tesla in the near future to build its EV's. That way, Ford can stop losing money on its EV sales and keep gouging its ICE vehicle customers to the bitter end. I expect Ford will tout its "American made" vehicles while GM and VW have gotten in bed with Chinese automakers.
The bottom line is that EV's are coming one way or another. That means the future for Suncor gasoline production and sales have an ugly future. Suncor better hope that Tesla doesn't ramp up EV heavy trucks anytime soon.
Comment by
Experienced on Nov 28, 2023 3:05pm
Dunno Oscure... I like the design of the Cybertruck. My wife thinks it's ugly. Know who's gonna win that argument? I will give you three guesses and the first two don't count.....lol
Comment by
ztransforms173 on Nov 28, 2023 3:10pm
very interesting on the "SUPERCHARGERS": - they REQUIRE MINIMUM 480 VOLT/ 100 AMPERES AC GRID to ENERGIZE 250KW DC EV charger * so they are an ELECTRICAL CHARGE HOGGER and DEMAND DEDICATED COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMER TAP * this means that a 200 MILE DISTANCE CHARGE {NOT sure of which Tesla MODEL} will take ~ 15 MINUTES z173