RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Clarke Inc selling lately like there’s no tomorrow Russians and Saudis control the oil price and Biden admin will kill XL soon and may even ban Canadian oil all together with new regs. The risk profile on Russians, Saudis and Biden combined relegate Canadian oil to F grade. When all the welfare dollars stop I the next months just in time for Biden eco extremists to be comfortable all these Canadians oil exposed stocks will get wiped out.
HugeCrane wrote: I see a lot more upside. I remember back in either 2017 and 2018 when Raymond James had an $8 price target and I think the rest of the analysts had around $6? Trican was trading a little over $3-4 (which was below book) and the industry was just starting to recover from the 2015-2016 slowdown. They weren't even close to boom times busy (I think around 4500 drilled wells that year) and Raymond James had an $8 price target...fast forward to 2021 and now there's less competition (no Halliburton, no schlumberger, no BJ Services, Step and Calfrac moved some equipment south couple years ago), frac intensity is through the roof and still going up, and the balance sheet is minty. Plus the share buybacks over the last several years have/will increase value/share. And if people are looking for a catalyst, then maybe the possibility of future consolidation will spice things up for them. Management has said continuously they would pull trigger on M&A when the timing is right, which I believe would fix their problems with competition low balling bids.
Now when it comes to Suncor and Tourmaline, ya they're very well run companies with strong balance sheets, but the service companies have been crapped on for the last several years to help producers cut costs. Once these guys start spending money again, the rates will go up and all of a sudden break evens aren't as low as advertised. I strongly believe lower break evens, and better book values for producers has almost entirely been done on the backs of oilfield service companies. They like to talk about "efficiency", but those efficiency gains are primarily from service companies working for nothing or even at a loss. Eventually low prices cure low prices, and after the producers have bankrupted enough service companies or demand returns, the tide will turn and it will be violent.