Trican Well Service Ltd T.TCW

Clarke Inc selling lately like there’s no tomorrow

[barneyj44]

Over 7 million shares over the last couple of weeks, wonder what's up?

[Mtklip]

There are better places to put your money for now.

[marcrobert]

Clarke still has 28 million shares left at least, but obviously the timing of the sale means that they think the price is decent enough 

[HugeCrane]

Price is not decent enough. Clarke is publicly traded and have to make decisions based on what is best for their shareholders and business. Last I checked, and correct me if I'm wrong, but they also have holdings in a hotel and a ferry company? I rather doubt those businesses have been profitable this last year. I remember they bought some shares at the covid lows and in the summer so they

[Mtklip]

Hugecrane, would you buy this or Tourmaline, just wondering.

[HugeCrane]

I think it depends on your risk tolerance and how long you're willing to wait. Higher oil demand and prices will be reflected sooner in Tourmaline's revenue and profits because it is a producer. Where as Trican may have to wait abit before producers want to pick up spending which will take time to show up on the balance sheet, but will also bite into competitors operating on bank debt. I

[Mtklip]

Thank you for the astute response. I recently had a lot more trican too, but I slid and bought tourmaline and Suncor for the reasons you mentioned. Why are you holding more trican then, do you see more upside? How much? Tourmaline has price targets in the 30s.

[HugeCrane]

I see a lot more upside.  I remember back in either 2017 and 2018 when Raymond James had an $8 price target and I think the rest of the analysts had around $6? Trican was trading a little over $3-4 (which was below book) and the industry was just starting to recover from the 2015-2016 slowdown. They weren't even close to boom times busy (I think around 4500 drilled wells that year) and

[firstworld]

Russians and Saudis control the oil price and Biden admin will kill XL soon and may even ban Canadian oil all together with new regs. The risk profile on Russians, Saudis and Biden combined relegate Canadian oil to F grade. When all the welfare dollars stop I the next months just in time for Biden eco extremists to be comfortable all these Canadians oil exposed stocks will get wiped out.

[Mtklip]

My previous post doesn't apply to firstworld.

[itsalie]

Short at your own peril

[itsalie]

I'm not too worried about keystone.. not sure why you are? https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/canada-energy-regulator-projects-there-may-be-no-need-for-trans-mountain-expansion

[firstworld]

Too bad Canda alienated China market because of an amateur spy and 12 times convicted Canadian drug dealer negotiating meth and other deals w N. Korea. Canada always backs the losers LOL.

[HugeCrane]

You do understand oil and natural gas are global commodities right? One way or another the final destination will be China if that is where the product is destined for. And if it's not, then it will displace oil from other countries that is destined for China. Canola is a prime example. Prices at 2-3 year highs, exports 9% higher yoy AND Chinese imports of  Canadian canola 49% LOWER yoy

[Mtklip]

I wonder how the LNG plant in bc is going to affect TCW and or Tourmaline. I own both.

[BigWillie]

cfw and tcw merger, please expand on this, big crane. Good people want to hear. I own both and would hate another merger, seems like whatever I touch is merging lately. Why would calfrac want to merge right after being reborn so beautifully. Why would trican want it, so far trican has the cleanest balance sheet. Calfrac is taking off by the way, Board the train, station is moving. 

[HugeCrane]

Hahah I'm not the only one that thinks this am I? Calfrac is majority owned by G2S2 and Clarke.  I can't remember how much Trican they own, but I know it's significant. I just think it would be in the majority shareholders best interest to have them under the same umbrella especially with Calfrac's debt load.  I know they restructured but Calfrac still has 300 mil in debt

[Mtklip]

It's nice to see some meaningful analyses on this board.