scarlet1967 wrote: Yet another bogus report specially the valuation of the NASH phase 3 is ridiculous, NASH sales $600 million in 2027? Even RBC projected $1 billion? I guess none of these analyst are realizing it is a multi-billion dollars market with growing prevalence, a silence killer add to that the comorbidity of NASH and other condition costing Health care system in the US as per NASH council over $600 billion!
This is an article valuing an R&D program throughout all stages based of the size of the targeted market, cost of program and cost of commercialized drug. The numbers are not relevant as this is not what THTX spending for the trials but they put a minimum %56 success rate for a phase 3 trial.
“The below chart shows the output of the drug valuation calculator: how the value of a drug program grows over time, assuming the program is successful at each stage (if it fails, the value generally goes to zero). The inputs are cost and time of development, probability of success at various stages of the drug development process, market size, costs of commercialization, and discount rate.
The chart also shows the total investment required to reach each stage, and the probability that a drug reaches a given stage. Later in this post, there's a tool that lets you play around with the assumptions driving this valuation model.
Value at start of program
$0M
Probability of FDA approval: 4%
Investment required for approval: $559M
Value at start of Phase 1
$88M
Probability of FDA approval: 12%
Investment required for approval: $520M
Value at start of Phase 2
$248M
Probability of FDA approval: 20%
Investment required for approval: $486M
Value at start of Phase 3
$1,119M
Probability of FDA approval: 56%
Investment required for approval: $405M