Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Alternate Symbol(s): THTX

Healthcare Biotechnology

Theratechnologies Inc. is a Canada-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the development and commercialization of therapies addressing unmet medical needs. It markets prescription products for people with human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) in the United States. The Company's research pipeline focuses on specialized therapies addressing unmet medical needs in HIV, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and oncology. Its medicines include Trogarzo and EGRIFTA SV (tesamorelin for injection). Trogarzo (ibalizumab-uiyk) injection is a long-acting monoclonal antibody which binds to domain 2 of the CD4 T cell receptors. It blocks viral entry into host cells while preserving normal immunologic function. The Company is also investigating an intramuscular method of administration of Trogarzo. EGRIFTA SV (tesamorelin for injection) is approved in the United States for the reduction of excess abdominal fat in people with HIV who have lipodystrophy.

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Theratechnologies Inc > Mackie Report is out

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Comment by Jasonthehumbleon Feb 02, 2021 12:31pm

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Post# 32447537

RE:RE:Mackie Report is out

So why isnt TH a $10 stock? Why are some biotech companies given very generous evaluations and some like TH are not?

SPCEO1 wrote: Mackie's report is 44 pages, so a lot of effort went into it. But here is how he reached his target price:

"Our valuation for TH (US$3.95/share) is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology that factors in the company’s commercial segment and the NASH project. To value TH’s commercial segment, we applied a 2.9x 2021 EV/Sales multiple to our new 2021 total revenue estimate of US$77.6M discounted by 10% - equaling US$2.27/share. To value TH’s NASH project, we calculated a probability-adjusted NPV assuming a 10% success rate – equaling US$1.69/share (see Figure 33). Our final target price of US$3.95/share is the sum of the value of the two parts."

He actually has NASH sales at nearly $600 million in 2027 and almost $2 billion in 2033. He uses a 15% discout rate. The 10% success rate assumption is why he adds so little to the price target. So, for every 10% more you would like to add to the success rate, you can add another US$1.69 to the target price. So, if you think TH has a 50% chance of success, you would end up with a price target of US$10.72.

SPCEO1 wrote: It is a big report that I don't have time to read at the moment but he raises the target price to $3.95 US as he gives some credit for NASH. More later.