RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Very Interesting DevelopmentDo you really think there are zero conversations, winks, solicitiations of interest or whatever before the broker gets restricted? Now, I will admit, it is quite likely if THTX has positive cancer data they will do an equity offering to fund the phase II trial or trials, so perhaps Nash is just observing that and making his own decision to get ready. But with the unusally good placement in the conference and the report coming out of nowhere with a model clean-up and a 50% higher price target based on nothing, my best guess is there is more to it than just a long apathetic analyst becoming suddenly diligent.
palinc2000 wrote: In your example where the brokerage firm gets a heads up snd the regulatory docs put together then THTX would be shown as RESTRICTED and the brokerage firm would not issue an updated resesrch report
SPCEO1 wrote: Equity raises do not happen overnight. The brokerage firms involved get a heads up on what is coming and get all the regulatory documents put together and reviewed. Such deals can happen fast but not instantaneously. The analysts involved always know ahead of time a deal is coming. It would not be prudent for THTX to not line things up in advance of such a deal, even if the proposed share offering is not yet a certainty as is likely the case with THTX right now. Sometimes, circumstances change and a deal that was being lined up never happens, but that is rare and usually the result of collapsing share prices generally.
If THTX follow the IMMU model, they may not be looking to do any partnerships other than in China. That model suggests you pick a cancer type to focus on, chase it all the way to approval, work on other cancer types in the lab to help the ultimate buyer to see the potential for a big platform and then sell to big pharma. Now, THTX has raised the prospect of research parnteships in areas they are unable to pursue on their own, so they may be more open to such partnerships than IMMU was (or maybe IMMU just did not have any partnership opportunities early on- their path to approval was a bit difficult).
To my eyes, a sweet spot at the Canaccord conference and an unexpected "housekeeping" report with a 50% increase in the target price smells a lot like something is in the works. Nothing may ever come of it but it looks like Canaccord is going to be ready if it does.
palinc2000 wrote: I dont believe that THTX hinted in any way to Ed Nash that good cancer data could be forthcoming .What Nash knows is that an equity raise might be needed and he wants to be proactive....As a matter of fact negative data might even more trigger the need for a capital raise to pivot to something else including but not limited to Nash,
Good cancer data as you put it might delay the need for a capital raise since big pharmas would line up in no time to to enter some collaboration agreement .
BTW what you are hinting at with the "wink'' would be close to flirting with illegal behaviour and I dont think this is in THTX s DNA
SPCEO1 wrote: Of course, but you apparently are missing my point, which is this odd behavior by this particular analyst who has been antagonistic/apathetic towards THTX since the ONO likely tells us something is going on which will likely have positive ramifications for the stock. If Ed Nash didn't think there was a great reason to get his numbers sorted out and raise his price target, I doubt this report would have been written. Also, even if he did know he had to do some housekeeping on his model, he would have waited until the Q3 results were released or about to be released. The report itself and the timing of its release suggest to me at least that something positive may be afoot.
canadapiet wrote: ???
If......IF they have positive 1b results in ONCOLOGY ......, don't you think every broker would like to do another ONO......?????!!!!
SPCEO1 - (9/2/2022 10:20:18 AM)
Very Interesting Development
While the stock is off to its normally sleepy start to the day, Ed Nash at Canaccord published a report on THTX where he lifted his price target by 50% to $3 from $2, cut his estimates for both revenues and expenses back to something that better reflects reality (his numbers were way off) and maintained his "Hold" rating. Coming on the heels of a good slot THTX got at the Canaccord conference, it is clear Canaccord and THTX are trying to mend their fractured relationship in anticipation of good cancer results and another equity raise to help fund the R&D.
The timing of the report is also telling to me. Analysts just don't write reports where they raise their price target 50% on no news item being reported and while they are also cutting future estimates of revenues (Ed's previous revenue numbers were comically off the mark for 2023 and beyond).
My best guess is THTX knows they have some good cancer info to announce on the short term horizon and want to do right by Ed, who pretty much got stiffed by THTX on the ONO. So, they winked at him and told him to get his act back together when it comes to THTX because things are going to happen, including another equity raise once good cancer data comes out.
From my perspective, this is one of the best "tells" we have that the TH-1902 phase 1b may soon have some positive results to report.