RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Everyone On CNBC Today's posts on this thread are the best I've read on this BB to date. Respectful opinions, discussion, debate.....well done folks!
If we assume the JR's answers in interviews over the past few months are still the plan going forward (which I have no reason to doubt they are), it seems likely that the story will proceed as follows:
I highly doubt the company will announce it's being taken out by an existing mining company. If this was the endgame, I think it would've already happened by now. It would be hard to imagine JR and his team putting all this apparent effort into "optimizing / perfecting" the FS only to say "ah, what the heck" and announce they are selling the company.
Instead:
FS will be released:
LOM around 25 years (maybe closer to 30...?)
Capex $900M - $990M. I think they'll keep it under $1B as the optics of $1B+ would not be helpful in supporting the share price (similar to the time-tested retail strategy of "It's not $10.00, it's $9.99"...).
TLG will enter into a Joint Venture agreeement with a mining company, likely 50/50, which will provide a large chunk of the capex money. Typically a company like TLG would release its FS first, then enter into discussions with potential partners with the FS in hand before picking the best fit/deal, but in past interviews, JR seemed to be implying that TLG has been in discussions with potential partners for months now, so perhaps the partner and terms of the JV agreeement will be released along with the FS...?
The remaining portion of TLG's part of the capex financing will be a credit facility (debt), with the possible addition of a copper offtake agreement with another party, which IMO would be smart given the anticipate low grade of TLG's copper and represents only around 15% of total AuEq. It would also keep any debt / borrowing to a minimum.
I'd be very surprised if there is any equity raise as part of the initial capex funding strategy.
JR has stated that streaming / royalty agreements are at the bottom of the list re. his preferred financing options, so unlikely that either of these alternatives will be part of the financing package either.
Let's see how much of the above proves to be correct.