RE:Up Limit
Lash99 wrote: Well I missed it but I was right. Up limit on all months. 389.60 on May and 398.50 on July. All mills in Canada are otm and are sold out 2-3 weeks. Also they have bumped their pricing I heard 30 percent. The market will fall to where it needs to but for now , its Smoking ! Guys we really have a winner here. The lack of supply in the west , it is definitely the eastern mills turn. Watch the allowable cut numbers coming out in a month. They will hold the pricing of the market as demand is far outpacing supply right now. Nope , I am not sure excited about this at all. I think lumber will pass the Specialty cellulose numbers in the next couple of quarters if this keeps up. Wow ! Lash
Great post. This is fantastic.
I'm not sure why I've always been so cautious on lumber. I guess sometimes we discount or overlook the sectors we're most familar with. One question, one thought.
Q: "Missed....". Was this your estimate? Or, more interestingly, a trade? I only ask b/c I've never played with futures. I worked with a odd Doogie Howser type years ago. He'd bought 100k of CFP. At the time I thought, 'that's a lot of dollars'. Turns out he meant shares. Crazy. Digression aside, he played with futures contracts too apparently and had a lot of respect for the wild swings and huge buy-ins needed to sit at the table. I'd alwyas been under the impression one contract was 100,000 fbm or a railcar. So, each would be a $50k buy in CAD more or less. If you do trade these I'll have ask a few smarter questions than just rambling anecdotes.
Thought. We like to value assets on this board. There is consensus in the EBITDA of 200 - 250M range. But, if lumber was ever to beat SC, that's a whole new animal. I usually spitball lumber at $40M; SC at $100M. Add another 60M to earnings? That's a 25% bump. Huge. TMB becomes a $300M company, with more sustainability (earning plowed into assets to increase effectivness). That means in 2019 we have 8x times $300M less $500M in debt = a share price of $19.00. That's a 530% retrun. AKA what we would call another day at the office, lol.