True North Commercial REIT T.TNT.UN

Market Reality

[Ponzihunter]

Analyzing the metrics are always worthwhile,  And with TNT.UN, it's great to justify why this thing deserves a bounce.  I believe it does as well, and I'm a long time holder.  I bought into the fact that the REIT has all these quality properties, many of which with government quality long term leases in place.  It seemed bullet proof.  But that was then.  Right now, there's only one relevant fact:  it's got a dividend rate of 20%, and whether it's sustainable on fundamentals or not, no CEO would ever allow that payout rate to continue.  Please stop fantasizing, read my previous post . . . and enjoy the price you see today . . . it's the last day it will ever be over $1.  Sorry, just trying to keep it real.

[EstevanOutsider]

if they cut cfo would have been lying to investors over the past couple months as they advised they were comfortable with the distribution. only way to bring this back into the $2s and maybe the $3s if rates go down is to maintain the distribution. if they cut i'd agree, it goes below $1, especialy into tax loss selling and the fact lower risk reits have 10% + distributions. doubt it happens

[rabnud]

quote:if they cut cfo would have been lying to investors over the past couple months as they advised they were comfortable with the distribution.  CFO and all those overpaid aholes lie all the time in the stock market 

[EstevanOutsider]

Could be, but their results reflected their comments to me and others. Financing up to Q3 was down at 6%, you don't get those kind of rates if the banks do not want to deal with you. The National Bank report by lazy analyst Kornack will be disproven tonight in my view. So we'll see. CEO & trustee both spent over $1 million on units at over double the current trading price. I get both

[lebouclier]

In order for there to be a dividend cut in today's report, there would have to have been a significant degradation of the REITs ability to maintain its operating revenues over the past quarter. I just do not see this happening in the current market environment even with all the additional risks. The drop in price is due to an over-correction of negative investor sentiment attributed to the

[EstevanOutsider]

Imagine they don't cut (my expectation) and I lock in 20% on yield on what I added last week?  The only issue I see the optics of having a 20% yield. Fundamentally they will be fine and have liquidation options on expiring leases which would be insanely accretive  given low implied trading price - also potential to run a SIB to correct unit price.

[Ponzihunter]

Is "hope and pray" really the investing strategy that should apply to this kind of company?  Just the fact they've already allowed the market to bring us here should be enough to make the next moves pretty obvious.  Like I suggested before,  . . . total suspension of dividend . . . allow stock to linger sub $1 for a month or two . . . 10:1 consolidation . . . another

[EstevanOutsider]

Well it isn't just TNT unfortunately or else I might agree with you. Also they likely have been under blackout since the dirty National Bank hit came out. Btw, I spoke with management since then and they see the report as the culprit behind the trading action. The analyst did not even talk to TNT before publishing it and their releasing has apparently been going well. As for the trading price

[Ponzihunter]

Good thoughts, Estevan! . . . There is another possible signal of "good vs bad" news imo, and that's the fact that there's been no meaningful movement on the shares yet today.  Obviously, the quarterly report is finished, so blackouts and all the other hush, hush stuff don't generally hold up this close to the end.  There are minor players that know the content, and

[robertbig]

i'd like to think you are correct, but i'd be surprised if anything postive is said today, seems more likely this will be trading down 20 percent tomorrow, than trading up.... maybe once a clearer picture is got on interest rates going forward, some sentiment in the reits sector will improve, very short term, ie, till 2024, seems like sideways to negative.... 

[EstevanOutsider]

all i know for sure is to buy when sentiment is negative max and fundamentals are reversing or the market is wrong - as is the case here. it was oil service stocks a couple years ago. people trolled me hard and laugehd at me, flashed low price targets and said there was no hope. made about 300% off that on a large amount of $$$. time to buy is when sentiment is negative and price targets are low

[lebouclier]

well 10 more minutes or so until we find out who is right ! 

[robertbig]

agree, sentiment is a usless long term guide, GL 

[Panic54321]

I 100% agree I was on that oil trade also. ( why wouldn't you buy oil goes negative ) that sector was so negative for so long it was almost unbelievable and 2020 brought it to an absolute breaking point.  once in a lifetime by an opportunity, that was crazy.   ( and it did take a while for the sector to bottom out.)   Nobody was buying these super cheap oil, stocks, and

[rabnud]

I have to say a stock thats drops from 2.60 to 1.40 in 3 short months  cant be all that great