At a time when Air Canada has announced plans to retire 79 aircraft and doesn't expect 2019 revenue for "at least three years", be careful here. AC needs to preserve its liquidity and capital , given the uncertainty and burn rate .
it likely will be forced to downsize its own employee base. With that backdrop, what are the odds that it closes this transaction? Does AC want more planes, more employees??? More restructuring ? The likelihood that it uses a adverse materiality clause to not move forward is, in my opinion, high.
even if it is either tied up in court or requires some kind of break fee, that seems the most logical outcome.
certainly , the share price direction tells you a lot. Considering this is owned by a number of Quebec - based shareholders, it seems investors are betting on one outcome here - no deal.
if you want to own this stock, go thru what sort of shape transat will be in without the deal going thru and if they remain stand alone. It doesn't look great . Upside versus downside risk ...this one is pretty binary.