Seven Generations Energy Ltd. class A common shares T.VII

Arx was Paid to take VII Generations

[MyHoneyPot]

Hopefully this is that last generation of poor management for the VII generation assets. 

CEO - couldn't communicate why they have an extra gas plant.
CFO - excaped PONY to allow destruction of VII Generations Balance Sheet.

Empty Dividend Promises
Empty Debt Reduction Promises
Empty Shart buy backs

[northman]

Dude. This is not the Yahoo Finance message board. I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish with these posts. Things would be different had oil stayed at $60+ for the last year, or at $100 plus when the gas plant was first contemplated. Nobody can see into the future, but we can learn from the past. You need to evaluate the quality of those decisions based on the information that was

[MyHoneyPot]

Dude face it they threw VII generation leadership to the curb, face it. These boards are filled with people that don't understand business. IMHO

[northman]

I agree. There are definitely people that don't understand business on here. But there are some really valuable contributors on here whose posts I look forward to reading, including retiredengexec, and I look forward to reading their posts on the ARC board in the coming months.

[regardless]

Northman I don't agree with you on one point about the potential for exponential breakout being gone  I think we can still see a 25$ stock by Christmas this year if prices are steady here and higher .. add in debt reduction and add in the sheer scale that arc now will have and add in that 3% dividend and you have a great great company  now add in the fact that we are investment

[regardless]

Northman here's a question for you.... at this rate does a guy start loading up on arc shares being u serval used by 1$ To vii? Or do you keep buying vii for the 1.108 share swap premium ?

[Sugaree]

Neither. Sell all ARX and VII, and buy POU. We will see but mark this post. As of now. POU $10.95 VII      $8.45 ARX   $7.75 My guess is POU outperforms both over the next 3, 6, 9 months and beyond.

[northman]

I'd love to hear somebody else chime in on this. I think if you do the rough math (somebody verify?) that POU is trading at $25K / flowing BOE, and VII / ARC will trade at $16K  / flowing BOE. So the best performing play of the year is to short POU and use the funds to buy VII or ARC, mark my words. The vauation per flowing BOE will narrow - it has to.

[retiredengexec]

I havent studied this in depth yet but I can say three things 1 VII had a small one play footprint. I think they were blinded by their results and stopped looking a long time ago. 2. Obviously CPPIB grew tired of VII and 3. ARX s acreage can grow faster and cheaper because its shallower. This should see the SP appreciate. I can see this growing to 450,000 boepd in 12 to 18 months More to come once

[topdown99]

Always appreciate your input retired , I think the market is going to get more enthusiastic over the next few weeks as this polar vortex continues to dominate . Supply is rapidly becoming the topic as opposed to inventory . As producers concentrate on debt reduction rather than increasing production , that level supply will be supportive of prices . Demand has slowly been increasing Q over Q as

[regardless]

topdown.. so what do you figure the chances here are that we see what happened with cenovus and husky where in cenovus offered 4.14$ a share and husky ran up to 6.90$ before the deal closed.... what are your thoughts on this happening here also ... q4 was supposed to be great...will the market possibly run us up given that the deal favoured arc 

[Sugaree]

I realize you have not asked me, but imo, once the vaccinations were announced about a week after that deal was announced, the entire sector went on a tear starting in November. So, the move up may have been partially attributed to the deal, but largely because sector sentiment turned on a dime after the Pfizer news, and then Moderna. If sentiment remains strong, it will move up accordingly, if

[topdown99]

Well regardless , the easy answer is 50/50 , lol . I've never been good at predictiong the "future" but I did notice a lot of support and interest in VII yeasterday . It seemed that ARX's lack of movement was holding VII back . We'll see what happens on Tuesday as you can't trust signals from typical Bay St chickenshit Friday trading particularly before a holiday weekend&

[MyHoneyPot]

Thats a joke, shows what you know. Vii generation debt to boe is 12 million dollars POU is 8 million dollars and they have loads of investment grade assets on the balance sheet.  ARX + VII generations will have 750 million shares a bloated share float, POU has 134 million shares with only about 60 million not held by the faimly.  POU sold VII generations their best lands, but kept the

[northman]

Combined ARC/VII will have what.. $2.7Bn in debt? over 340,000 BOE. POU has $750MM in debt over 75,000 ish BOE. That means $8K debt per BOE for ARC and $10K debt / BOE for POU.  Share count doesn't matter. Only market cap matters. Not sure about the plays - as I said I defer on this one. I don't profess to know the future, but two plays of a similar nature with 'more or less

[northman]

Well 'personally' I'm just going to hang onto my shares and take the ARC shares. But i had thought about this. We know the multiple is 1.108 so if we are 100% certain the transaction will go through then anytime the current SP is not in line with this multiple there is an opportunity for arbitrage. Arbitrage can be achieved not by buying one or the other but by pairs trading the two

[Sugaree]

I have not read in depth the deal, but you say $25 by Christmas. Wouldn't the consolidated company be trading under the ARX symbol be by then?

[northman]

Yeah I guess my comment about exponential growth was more about scale and exposure. The greater the size of a company and the more diverse it is, the less likely that outperformance in one area will cause exponential share price appreciation. So what I am expecting from the new ARC is steady returns that are hopefully still quite high. When I pictured VII and it's exposure to condensate