I will post this onceIf you are new, and by new you were not here in 2014, 2015, 2016 or for most of 2017.
VLE has...
1. A underperforming but potentially profitable shallow program in the 100% owned
Banarli licenses above 2500m and is the operator.
There are pipe lines nearby. A few wells have been tied in and modest production is
ongoing.
2. In other licenses there are many shallow wells producing modestly. VLE in the TBNG
lands owns 81.5% of the production and is the operator.
3. VLE also owns the infrastructure that ties in and moves the produced gas.
4. VLE has ZERO debt.
5. VLE has somewhere in the range of 80 million shares outstanding
6. Operating netbacks around $22.00/ boe
7. Recently our "Deep" partner Statoil spent $10 million dollars to shoot 3D seismic for the remainder of the Banarli licenses. STO is in the process of earning in for 50% of the deep on Banarli.
Which is why you are here
1. Yamalik 1 is the first "deep" (below 2500m) well on Banarli. It was done, at least initially, as a bit of science project to test the prospectivity of the Basin Centred Gas Accumulation (BCGA) concept that VLE has been accumulating data for. Initial success estimates from early coverage of Yamalik (Cormark specifically) set .5/.8 mmcf/d over the 4 test intervals. In the 4 test intervals the cumulative flow from these sections totalled
2.9 mmcf/d over the duration of the testings.
2. STO paid for the well to be drilled and the testing. They have one more deep well to pay for in its entirety in order to earn their 50% of the deep on Banarli and become the operator of the deep on Banarli.
3. It should not be forgotten that STO (in the course of VLE purchasing a larger %age of the rights to the TBNG lands) also entered in to a deal with VLE to drill the deeper sections of the TBNG lands. Visit www.valeuraenergy.com for details.
4. In December before we knew the results of Yamalik 1 VLE commisioned "DeGolyer and MacNaughton ("D&M") of Dallas, Texas to provide a resource assessment (the "D&M Resource Assessment") under the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook and in accordance with National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure For Oil and Gas Activities for the potential basin-centered gas play underlying Valeura's significant acreage position in the Thrace Basin. The D&M Resource Assessment will be timed to incorporate the results from the Yamalik-1 Testing Program"
5. It is January and since late November 2017 the stock has climbed from the 50 cent range to where we are now approaching the $5 mark. Should you watch BNN you will see a few questions asked of VLE. Most analysts (even O&G experts) have not heard of it; when shown its chart the easy answer always is take some profit or play with house money, reduce your exposure. You will get no argument from me to pocket some winnings along the way.
BUT... the current market cap of VLE is approximately $375 million dollars. For perspective sake GMP securities recently put out a $5 target on the notion that 2.5 TCF
gets you to this number. That is seriously disputable and so even GMP noted that they may find their estimate conservative.
I don't want to float expectations and then have them not be met but if the D&M Resource Assessment suggests that their best estimate is 5TCF of gas then what is a reasonable share price target? What happens if it is 10 TCF.
Someone (maybe you) will come along or has come along and wonder is the party over.
We currently sit, as far as SP, just shy of GMP's self admitted conservative estimate of gas accumulation potential in the Banarli deep formations.
I am an amateur so don't hitch your wagon to what I say. Read what VLE produces each month (nearly) in their Corporate presentation. If you like the technical side of this Google
Investor Village Turkey and once at that board apply to be a part of their discussions.
Must reads for those wanting a broader perspective on VLE Google Hydra Capital Blog
and look for Malcolm Shaw's articles going back several years and pre Statoil. They are easy to read, realistic and informed. For those that followed Malcolm when he posted on Seeking Alpha you know that he has graduate degrees in Geology and has worked in the industry... Phew!
I am always open to being wrong; I don't know what number we will eventually arrive at but what I have posted above is primarily facts that have previously been reported and pored over by many. If I missed something please share. If you disagree please share but please if you expect to be treated seriously be serious. One last caveat if you ask a technical question don't expect an answer from me.
Lev