RE:RE:RE:Cheaper Today than 2020It seems Capex is about 25 million a quarter to keep 1 rig rolling. I hope they don't spend much more than that each quarter until debt targets are met but it could increase if they buy land or invest in infrastructure (like Q1).
At 2.5 aeco and 80 (Q4 average thus far) they should FCF about 3-4 million a month (which should ideally increase until production hits a 1 rig equilibrium point at 17 - 20k bpd which may take a few more years at which point they should FCF about 8 million a month).
An average of 4 million a month FCF suggests 9 months to hit 80 million in debt (mid next year). At this point I would expect a buyback will be initiated unless share price is significantly higher.
It seems the well spacing in new licenses is finally increasing. This is a positive and improved drill results may expedite things.