Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

The reality...

[kavern23]

I own YGR with following rules basically

If QCF is 30 plus - YGR is strong buy
If QCF is 25-30M - buy
20-25m - hold if I happen to own at the time
20M and below this is a sell to me.

Logic for those rules and I am not saying anyone should copy me, but my logic for those rules is that is the CF thresholds I think YGR needs to meet in order to have the cash to spend enough frac on the wells.

Aeco is going to be strong for awhile over 4 bucks as it is cold in Alberta.
Oil is still nice price in Cad dollars as exchange dropped.

Q3 of 2021 is first Q YGR has had a plus 20M CF Quarter since Q4 of 2019 when it had 21M.
The fact that YGR actually had a bit more money in Q3 could be why the last 4 west ferrier wells came on so good...YGR finally had the cash .

I suspect their is a correlation between CF per quarter and production growth.

YGR probably hit the 10000 mark in Oct because they had the cash from Covid recover in prices to frac last 4 better.

Looking promosing again.

Sure I will be back soon buying, especially at these prices. Cheap right now.

[kavern23]

YGR should CF over 30M in Q1 but at this point it is kinda hard to know with total good certainity as a person is still going off of October data. I mean logically between weather related AECO strenigth from Jan-Mar and if those Chedarville wells come online good...and a if a few West ferrier wells then it should be very dobale to CF over 30M in Q1. YGR should attract new investors in 2022 if it

[TheRexmember]

Agreed AECO really should be a healthy price for the foreseeable future and that will help. Sure some ups and downs with weather but I think there is a structural change there going forward. 1.5 bcf in alberta demand growth.  3 propane export terminals on the west coast two of them expanding. Should never see such ugly liquids pricing again.  re VET - you can see Nuttall is just

[Overertune]

What is your evaluations to define "cheap"?  My understanding is they still have to Increase production and pay down debt?

[kavern23]

Overtune what companies are really left in the Canadian patch that are under 1.50 or even 2 bucks and have any kind of production growth potential through the drill bit....the downturn has gotten them all other then like these three companies: LXE - Leurcrotta YGR - Yangarra PRQ- Petrus Others under 1.50 like Gear, PPR, Hemisphere, Perptual...don't have wild drilling budgets or drilling

[TheRexmember]

Why I think it is cheap: Cash flow, free cash flow and cash flow growth over the next 12 months - these are what I think makes it cheap. It is trading at less than 1 X next year's cash flow rounding up :   $1.40 x 90 million shares =126 million.  On free cash flow - metrics drop but there is probably some torq coming from recent wells that were back to type curve and its on a