Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Guys....

[cfliesser]

LXE.V just sold for $477M
They have production of 2,500 BOE/day
NAV Proved + Probable = $528M

YGR has a market cap of $247M (x0.5)
They have produciton of 10,400 BOE/day (x4.2)
NAV Proved + Probable = $1316M (x2.5)

If someone buys YGR for the same price as LXE, that implies a SP of :
Based on producation: $23
Based on PDP: $14

Crazy, did VET overpay??? Or is YGR way undervalued? Or both?

[cfliesser]

VET news release focused on how LXE will hit 13k production in 2 years, after lots of drilling.  But YGR is at 11k now, why not buy YGR for the same price they payed ($477M is double curent SP of YGR). Maybe because YGR won't sell  hahah

[Oilpig1]

Dig a little deeper in the fundamental differences. If ygr shows 10% reduction in debt, with the type of sales and eps as indicated in the presentation. Stock price will double based on my quick math.

[Oilpig1]

I put the buy out price around 7.15 per share, if the going rate is 5.80 a barrel proved and probable. A buyout price of 500 million, after 200 million in debt only leaves us with a share price of 3.48. Again quick math, but not to far off.

[cfliesser]

YGR has double the proved and probable than LXE. Also NAV includes debt.

[cfliesser]

Good point facotring in debt. see math below. Using PDP here (not Nav because that included debt)   LXE YGR total proved and probable (MBOE)          50.7 141.2 market cap (M$)  $       500  $   &

[cfliesser]

I redid the math for producing and also for proved. Same result:   LXE YGR     LXE YGR     LXE YGR total proved and probable (MBOE)          50.7 141.2   total

[cfliesser]

Also even more salt in the wound, LXE got paid for their NAV. They essentially got just below their NAV based on 10% discounted PDP. BTW for YGR the NAV based on 10% PDP is  From their EOY financials: LXE: Pre-tax net present value ("NPV") of proved & probable reserves discounted at 10%: 393,860 Undeveloped land (1) 104,000 Working capital 30,315 Net

[cfliesser]

Sorry TYPO. corrected: Also even more salt in the wound, LXE got paid for their NAV. They essentially got just below their NAV based on 10% discounted proved and probable. BTW for YGR the NAV based on 10% NAV proved and probable is $13.86 per share using the same metric. (this includes debt) From their EOY financials: LXE: Pre-tax net present value ("NPV") of proved &

[pennydredful]

They  ain,t   buying   the   LXE    for   the   PDP    its   more  about   the  exploration  prospective land    that  comes   with  it  .   ---- your   analysis   confirms    that.

[cfliesser]

Yes but all the prospective land included in "probable" no? Hence why the probable is so much higher than PDP...

[pennydredful]

Commentators said  they  overpaid  and  likely  probable  only  covers  portion  of the land  ,nevertheless  your  point  is well taken  

[cfliesser]

Yea I would agree they overpaid.

[fullyautomatic]

Whew... I thought today was going to be bloodbath. Not so. If you don't have a full postion by now, today is a clear sign that we aren't done going higher. Final chance to buy sub $3. Forward NG pricing is very strong, look at CR today..... $3.85 target here. 

[Binkie]

Not sure it's apples apples, if the property was adjacent, you could make a solid case but they went after Montney play not far from lng project for a reason. They can sell to Europe  at a premium. However, there is merit in the comparison as another way to determine valuation. Any way you look at the numbers, YGR is significantly undervalued. 

[cfliesser]

Yes definitly. Not a direct comparison yes.  But the vast difference meant only to say that YGR prob somewhere between current price and implied price. Maybe somewhere half way. Combo of the following: 1) LXE probably overvalued 2) Not exactly the same assets 3) YGR undervalued

[hurko22]

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