Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Kavern - Any update on production of those new wells?

[cfliesser]

Any insight?

[kavern23]

August isnt' out yet, expecting Friday evening.  Think lots too be optimistic on August prod.

[Westboro1]

What source do you use to get that info?

[kavern23]

From AER. Nothing out yet. Companies must be tardy in submitting the data to AER.

[Westboro1]

Thanks

[kavern23]

My laptop went and have to get my old excel sheet but I can tell at a high level for August. Oil production looks f*cking fantastic, 3200-3300....YGR hasnt been over 3k on oil for years....like pre covid I think but I would have to double check on that. On those three good wells from July...one did 592 barrels of pure crude a day, 488 and 232. Like I thought they would do well. Not sure yet what

[kavern23]

I ran Inplay oil as well. YGR is within 100-250 barrels on the crude side versus IPO. IPO top oil well is 165 barrels and YGR has the star wells now.   I cant control market conditions or prices but by Dec 31....YGR should trade higher then IPO....fairly confident on that statement.

[pennydredful]

Currently  I   think   the market   sees   IPO   more  advanced on  debt  reduction  and  I  believe their  US  marketing  efforts    has   resulted  in  more  buy in  from  US  based  shareholders.

[cfliesser]

debt plays a part yes. But I think the MAIN reason IPO is worth more than YGR today is that they SHOWED large production growth from 2021 to 2022. They got return on capital deployed. YGR spent the same money and got less back. YGR did NOT show production increases like IPO did. But if they do, which kavern is suggesting then they should be rerated accordingly. The market wants to see success

[Helloworld]

Thank you for this Kav. I do appreciate the knowledge you share. Feels like an inside scoop although Mr. Market wouldn't know it from the fact we are at a 6 month low. Eventually continued drilling success and debt reduction will translate.

[Helloworld]

Also a question. On your previous month model you projected this July to August increase but also another increase August to September. Do you still think we will see that?

[kavern23]

Absolutely I think Sept will be higher production for YGR...no contribution from 4 more Ferrier wells which will be producing in Sept.  Will have a better idea tonight when I look at stuff in more detail.

[kavern23]

Sucks man the fundamentals of the general market...in a rising period of interest rates everywhere. The central banks will cause recessions that will slow demand down. If market coniditions were good right now, I would have bought shares of YGR in a heartbeat today. I am going to keep waiting as I have been patient since Russia started this BS in Feb. I don't want to p*ss away my covid gains

[kavern23]

So I noticed Obisidan is 3 bucks higher then Bonttera...way higher then before is the spread. So I pulled Bonterra August...oil production did not look good for August. Going to need a good Sept.  Companies like BNE that have low capex budgets...well wait for Q3 to come out...production will be lower then alot of people think.

[TheRexmember]

Re BNE.  they were producing 14,300 boe/d in Q2 and YTD produced 13,800. Only guided for 13,500 -13,700 average for the year so they are at or above plan.  Yangarra was 10,500 and has guided for about 12,000. They need to exit at about 14,000 to meet guidance. sounds like both will do fine. The lower decline rate and cheaper wells should insulate Bonterra and they are spending 40

[kavern23]

Yeah bur Rex, YGR started doing something in 2022 that BNE, OBE, and IPO cant do. Large pad drilling.  IPO and Bne and OBE have to drill 2-3 wells per pad as they are drilling around old wells.  Everything YGr is doing in 2022 is doing a pile of well son same lease cause virgin halo ground. YGR is always going to have this competive advantage,  Usually need to be big to do this

[TheRexmember]

I don't really know anything on the drilling. They don't give us much info so we have to infer a lot. i watched Garg's video and it drove home some of the industry perception of their drilling. I feel like it has changed though and a lot of money can be made by being early before the market believes it.  Like IPO last year when they had some drilling surprises.  If they

[kavern23]

Rex, to be fair  I may have been too hard on BNE and IPo as they havent ran a rig as constitently as YGR during Q2  so they would have a weaker august.  I was in an unsettled mood last night as I just had a "feeling" a today like day was going to happen last night. Rusty but I still have spent 10 hours a day since Monday. Person's intuition starts getting better. I am

[TheRexmember]

Good points though Kavern. I would prefer the Yangarra business plan of just running one rig all the time and maybe lowering the total well numbers by drilling a few joint venture wells like YGR does. I think that is just smart business. BNE really throws off the cash flow and manages the financial side very well. Not 100% sold they couldn't adjust their drilling practices to squeeze out a few

[pennydredful]

YGR   spent  more  money  on  intrastructure  that  reduces   or   keeps  costs  low  ---like  oil storage tanks,   tanker  transport trucks  ,  production  and  drilling   tools  and site  clearing  equipment   etc. 

[kavern23]

And it is nice the forecasted prices ygr uses in their presentation versus ipo. ygr is using 100 cad and ipo is using 117 cad. Oil in Edmonton par is like 106.50 right now. Ipo uses 117 cad. Ygr uses 4 bucks aeco and ipo uses 6. I mean the blunt reality is both ygr and ipo are going to have trouble matching their q2 financials as ng was like over 7.50 for both and oil was nuts. But ygr can

[kavern23]

Good and fair points Penny. But do you think IPO can keep getting away with sub 100m capital budgets, even in 2023? Look at Petrus, they are following YGR lead and they are going to 100m capex.