Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Is a recap coming?

[TheRexmember]

Finally took some time to go through the balance sheet and looked at all of the adjustments plus a few of their news tidbits stringing people along. 

8 million shares issued last year with minimal debt reduction. 

exit production was down to 11,133 

half of liquids are ngl's that were selling under $33.00 per barrel 

debt/cash flow  at 1.69 - brutal for poor assets

decline rate is still too high. Gas weight too high. 

finally addressed drilling costs and looked into decline mitigation strategies. Albeit about 5 years too late. 

Holding this one is investing based on hope. As in, I hope they can just dilute a little bit and gas prices will recover in time before we have a problem. All of the better operators are growing, reducing debt, buying back stock and initiating dividends. Yangarra is shrinking production, diluting shareholders and increasing debt ratios. 

Management needs to be replaced with stronger operators, debt needs to be reduced 60-70 million at 12k boe/d to get close to industry averages. 

a recap is coming or a debt workout is going to be imposed. Not sure how anyone can look at the last quarter positively.

[kavern23]

Rex that isn't accurate to say they have high declines as their low production was due to some sets of low producing new wells....legacy wells were really strong genrally and got reserve revisions upwards on ng and NGls.  Bne is the company in cardium that will have very high decline rates, their wells don't last long. look at bne reseve report, not good.

[TheRexmember]

Bne decline rates are about 7% lower than ygr. these things are published Kav.  In Q4 2022 YGR averaged 11,700, BNE 13,000. BNE exited Q4 2023 at 15,100 avg. Ygr exited at 11,100 avg. One company grew by 2,100 barrels while the other shrank by 600 barrels. With similar CARDIUM budgets. All while quietly picking up 45 sections of Montney land, drilling a great Montney well then adding 120

[kavern23]

Rex how can you paint ygrs whole asset base as declining high when we all know ygr barely got any contribution from wells completed July on and then in January things are back to normal. Ygr management should be trying new tech and things and sometimes this causes short term problems. All cardium companies should be trying to make new well costs cheaper. the market has liked Bne move to

[Hendrick3]

COO bought over 500,000 shares on  Friday. If they were in danger of recap I doubt she would do that. 2023 was not a good year but the stock is dirt cheap right now. I think that is what the message should be from the COO purchase. 

[pennydredful]

Checked   that   on  SEDI  but  not  see  that  there .  As  far   as  I  can  see  there  is no  C.O.O. position   at   YGR  at  least by  name .  There  is  an  executive  VP   named   Trish   who 

[Hendrick3]

https://twitter.com/InsiderAlertApp/status/1767202640906108942   here is where I heard about insider buy  

[Hendrick3]

Here is another insider buy for ygr  INSIDER BUYING Bowerman, Gordon buys $125,799 Yangarra Resources Ltd. $YGR.TO Shares: +113,332 Price: $1.11 Tx date: 2024-03-08 (1 trade) Now owns: 3,998,859 shares (value: $4,398,745)

[Hendrick3]

My bad. It appears this web site might be confusing stock options issued with stocks purchased. I just found other large insider buys that look suspiciously like options issued. 

[pennydredful]

Yes  and   the   lady   exersized  50000   options   not   500000  .   GO   to   SEDI  for  accurate  info.  this  is where  filings  are  made.  LIkely   YGR  retain  a service  that  make  the filings for them

[pennydredful]

These  buys  by  Bowerman  make sense  .  He has been  there for the duration  and  has  deep pockets.  He  also  was part  of  the gang exercising  options. 

[Hendrick3]

The recap idea is just so bizarre and ridiculous. It makes me  wonder if people have lost their minds. Ygr earned 50 cents per share in 2023 and has had earnings throughout the last several years including 2020. The reserve report NAV that just came out indicates NAV discounted 10% per share of 3.76, >8, > 14 for PDP, P1 and P2. NAV is net of debt so the debt is factored in to those

[pennydredful]

could   not  find  any   insider   buy   apart  from  options  exercised  .  There  is no  COO position  .  Name   the person   that   bot   500000  shares  Friday  

[pennydredful]

You  need  to  be  able  to  disifer  real  posters   and  no  nothing  trolls   .   There  are  at least  3  on   this   thread   probably   all  one  guy.   Kavern23  sometimes  gives the mcredence    by 

[TheRexmember]

Hendricks the issue is that the numbers are almost irrelevant when you look at the actual bottom line impact of their revenues. The accounting shows they are quite profitable but free cash flow is very weak. They do a few things that are different than most companies. For example trucking more than putting in pipelines (under-capitalizing versus over capitalizing lease operating expenses).  

[Hendrick3]

We agree that 2023 was a bad year for drilling and nat gas prices. You focus on FCF which is not a standard calculation and doesn't take into account growth capital. What growth? Their reserve report indicates a tripling of reserve additions for every unit produced. EPS is the best measure of sustainable FCF as it includes a charge for capital and financing in it. Production fell in the 4q but

[TheRexmember]

Some good points, liked the post.  Birchcliff has a pristine balance sheet and great land though. The financial management is brutally dogmatic though which I think is a good comp for YGR.  A better comp might be Peyto. The difference in the companies is also dramatic in debt ratios and that ygr is back to the stock price in the 2021 doldrums. Where Peyto in 50% higher and has both

[smcapinvestor]

Net income included a one time gain and depends heavily on the correct valuation of assets. Yangarra uses Deliotte for reserve reports, which is not the industry standard. The Alberta Treasury branch only accepts cash, not net income They are going to pull back lending to YGR by the tens of millions. So how does YGR meet this demand and continue to drill enough to keep production from falling too

[pennydredful]

smcapinvestor is a troll  as  is   Hello World   ---likely   the same  guy  .  Alberta  Treasury  are  not  a lender  to   YGR  .   Deliotte  may  be  their   auditor   as   they  are  Accountants  .  Enginners  do  the

[Hendrick3]

Can't speak to all the info but Deloitte's does do the reserve report verification. They have engineer's do the work but attestation comes under their brand. All the work is in accordance with the industry guidelines on reserve reporting so they are in compliance with industry. That said all firms have slightly different price decks and extrapolations which can result in sone

[pennydredful]

Correction  ;  They  did  use  Deliottes  for  the engineers  report  using  petroleum engineers ,  MNP   is their  auditor  and  CIBC  are  their  primary banker  if not their only one  

[kavern23]

Deliotte is very credible organization...like 400k empoyees world wide. Massive...I woudnt worry about using Deliottte.

[pennydredful]

Deliotte  may be  newer at  this  so  may be  willing to price undercut the more established firms to  gain market share .  As  Kavern  mentioned  the bank  would  likely not buy into it  without the established well insured  NAME.