RE:RE:RE:RE:WHOOOO.Manthebull wrote: PETRO It seems like you paid attention in the court room. Could you please throw in a guesstimate for debs? Depending on the conversation. Did the priority of trade claims come up. Did AD HOC say anything about the distribution?
I don't want to raise any hopes too high, so don't want to publicly speculate. But I suspect it must be somewhere between 50 cents on the dollar, and less than 100 cents on the dollar. If it wasn't a good enough value recovery, then the Ad Hoc Group would continue to fight the deal. However, to fight the deal, would take both legal costs, and ultimately a big refinancing, to recapitalize the company, as per the original plan. So any cash offer now, must be weighed with the potential cash required to recap the company, in order to eventually get full value for the debentures.
If oil prices were higher, it would have been a no-brainer to contest the deal futher, to try and get 100% recovery. At the same time, if oil prices were higher, someone would have come up with a higher offer, to take everything out, and leave residual value for the shareholders. With a higher oil price, the banks would have had no problem lending more money. But with the lower price, they were quick to slash the throats of the shareholders, and take the sales proceeds, that will be lent to the next new junior oil company, looking to make a name for themselves, and make some new investors rich.
Another point on the payout to debentures that I didn't mention, was there are still receivership and legal costs, to come off the cash available for distribution. The lawyer mentioned there are some costs, in the millions of dollars, but not the tens of millions. So there still are additional costs to deduct, but these should still give a "substantial" amount for distribution.
They also commented that even if the amount is prioritized to trade creditors, there still is enough, to give a good payout to debenture holders. So the end result, was that no opposition was raised, by the Ad Hoc Group.
No opposition was raised by any shareholders either, and that would include ex-Twin Butte Management members, that I noticed in Court.