RE:Short Position Here is a table of the short interest held and changes over the past year or so. Note, the OTC short interest has not been reported, yet, and won't be for another week; but, the Canadian total only increased 240,000, as noted, (it would be unexpected to see the OTC TSTIF to have changed much; but, we will see...stranger things have happened...).
Again, I do think there was a typical bear raid following the quarter and cc with no news expected, and that these shorts covered quickly once the share price declined in their favor, as one would expect they would (before positive news as we saw Friday could hit the street). Note, the shares purchased short were up before the cc, but by the 15th the totals had declined again to quite reasonable levels as at present in the 2-2.6% float range.
One expects the short interest totals and purchases to increase substantially during a time of rapid and significant share price increases, and this is what we saw in the Canadian trade back in Nov 2015, with an increase in shorts of about 3 M, with shares purchased short having registered at about 5 M over that month, (presumably a significant number covered relatively quickly, too). Again, in Feb 2016 there were 2.8 M shares purchased short, but with the positive news of the warrants expiring Feb 4, and a strong share price response, short covering likely helped the share price increase and resulted in a decline in short interest of 1 M, (that reappeared in the OTC market, ... unexplained).
On the first trading day of July 4, 2016 in Canada, TSO3 announced the breakthrough extended claims from the FDA for complex mulitchannel scopes that resulted in a marked share price appreciation. Again, as one might expect, the shares purchased short were huge at almost 2.6 M with the share price rise; but, with the obvious strong company news and solid forward fundamentals, these shorts had to substantially cover their positions resulting in a short interest held only 10 days later, declining by about 2.5 M from 4.1 M to 1.7 M, (accompanied by an unexplained 3.0 M increase in the OTC market short interest as has been noted). And, of course, the share price jumped and held over 3.50 for quite a while partly due to this short squeeze.
What is odd in this table is that in the two weeks up to Nov 30, despite only an increase in short interest held of 240,000, there were 4 M shares purchased short. It is quite unusual that the shares would be purchased short during a time of or following a significant share price decline: you don't short a stock that is falling or beaten up for no fundamental reason unless you want a losing trade. I presume this means that the bizarre recent TD trade involved purchasing significant shares short and then trying to cover these shorts quickly at a lower price during the sp volatility that the huge TD trading volume seemed to cause. As I noted last week, I am doubtful that this trade worked out well for the kids at TD, as they appeared to be buying 12 M and selling 12.5 M shares (52% of all trades) over the period at a loss of 0.016 per share, but one never knows. On the surface, this was not exactly intelligent or profitable short trading, or long trading for that matter. Of course, the short trades could have been perpetrated elsewhere, but TD's bizarre and huge activity stands out as the most likely source. Again, I can't say if the TD trade ended due to the trader's frustration with an illogical losing trade and the sp supported due to strong real buyer interest on fundamentals, or if IIROC and/or FINRA questions caused them to cease and desist.
In terms of any coming short squeeze with positive news, I still expect the TD traders have sold about .5 M more than bought recently, and this could explain the increase in the shorts held. Would one not have expected the short interest held to actually fall significantly as of Nov 30 during this share price decline as the intelligent shorts would have covered and should be covering their positions and taking their profits, (though it is hard to see this number decline when 4 M shares were also bought short during the period)? Who in their right mind would short this company at 2.60 or 2.70?
Until we can see the OTC TSTIS short interest, the tea leaves won't appear much clearer. LOL. And, they are just tea leaves.
Bottom line for me is that there is no fundamental reason whatsoever to short TSO3. Only traders who don't know the company and don't care what it does would try this, though I also suspect RR et al will keep a little news powder dry following the next many cc's just to hit any attempts to repeat a bear raid like the one we just saw. :) The company's future is extremely bright, and anyone shorting TOS longer term is a fool. If some shorting stragglers get caught in a near term squeeze with more share price appreciation on improving fundamentals and news, no tears for them here. :))
The buying opportunity continues...and will continue on even more good news coming! This company is worth 3-5 x present market cap. GLTA
| TSTIF OTC SI | Close start-mid--end 2 wks | Total TOS CDNl SI | Short Sale Trades | % Total Trades | Short Traded Volume | % Total Traded Volume | Short Traded Value | % Total Traded Value |
| | 2.73-2.48 Nov 30 | 2,436,187 | 5646 | 26.813 | 4079999 | 17.022 | 10891221 | 17.052 | | |
| 3,525,573 | 3.28-2.49-2.76 Nov 15 | 2,195,765 | 4583 | 29.905 | 1596843 | 16.036 | 4360890 | 16.188 | | |
| 3,421,218 | 3.07-3.58-3.30 Oct 31 | 2,120,551 | 3621 | 33.624 | 1237864 | 18.311 | 4277053 | 18.308 | | |
| 3,514,133 | 3.34-3.18 Oct 15 | 2,210,415 | 1599 | 37.588 | 446433 | 21.92 | 1432826 | 21.72 | | |
| 3,872,434 | 3.16-3.27 Sept 30 | 2,019,187 | 985 | 21.007 | 279651 | 16.3 | 917048 | 16.332 | | |
| 3,955,432 | 3.12-3.15 Sept 15 | 2,093,482 | 1420 | 26.093 | 481239 | 21.678 | 1500642 | 21.597 | | |
| 3,803,630 | 3.34-3.44-3.10 Aug 31 | 2,361,550 | 2125 | 24.353 | 660925 | 22.555 | 2142546 | 22.295 | | |
| 3,918,710 | 3.64-3.74-3.58 Aug 15 | 2,125,346 | 3295 | 33.626 | 1538007 | 31.013 | 5461704 | 30.887 | | |
| 3,926,754 | 3.45-3.73-3.64 July 31 | 1,824,617 | 2424 | 21.627 | 1374011 | 23.513 | 5069558 | 23.649 | | |
| 3,835,819 | 2.24-3.35 July 15 | 1,676,678 | 3234 | 19.548 | 2463800 | 20.296 | 7567967 | 19.973 | | |
| 842,438 | 2.26-2.14-2.24 June 30 | 4,112,162 | 166 | 10.6 | 69777 | 8.968 | 154572 | 8.989 | | |
| 1,352,800 | 2.26-2.33-2.25 June 15 | 3,824,979 | 634 | 16.88 | 196600 | 7.669 | 453312 | 7.73 | | |
| 1,420,885 | 2.10-2.22 May 31 | 3,140,812 | 457 | 13.477 | 195969 | 14.139 | 414640 | 14.091 | | |
| 1,517,863 | 2.29-2.12 05-15 | 3,508,725 | 514 | 13.129 | 222886 | 10.778 | 489962 | 10.748 | | |
| 1,382,539 | 2.22-2.25 04-30 | 3,748,981 | 975 | 17.841 | 691328 | 20.933 | 1544865 | 20.841 | | |
| 1,440,039 | 2.18-2.07-2.34 04-15 | 3,636,265 | 1421 | 24.653 | 689867 | 22.072 | 1540963 | 22.142 | | |
| 1,461,639 | 2.12-2.37-2.17 03-31 | 4,005,796 | 1647 | 24.192 | 877833 | 19.637 | 1921316 | 19.67 | | |
| 1,083,239 | 1.92-2.07 03-15 | 4,553,758 | | 23.884 | 483413 | 19.072 | 961235 | 18.945 | | |
| 1,117,539 | 1.73-1.95 02-29 | 4,475,729 | 1207 | 34.774 | 445481 | 26.441 | 797884 | 26.269 | | |
| 534,440 | 1.96-1.75 02-15 | 4,466,792 | 3604 | 53.235 | 1738568 | 40.125 | 3121953 | 40.133 | | |
| 347,000 | 1.82-1.93 01-31 | 5,563,466 | 2013 | 54.955 | 1197814 | 45.285 | 2253884 | 45.427 | | |
| 232,500 | 2.23-1.94 01-15 | 5,441,037 | | 65.776 | 1596122 | 42.724 | 3197829 | 42.4 | | |
| 233,600 | 1.97-2.23 12-31 | 4,897,452 | 2597 | 43.876 | 941423 | 32.511 | 2038836 | 32.994 | | |
| 220,700 | 2.03-1.95 12-15 | 4,501,119 | 720 | 24.121 | 559331 | 24.237 | 1101380 | 24.281 | | |
| 143,945 | 1.56-2.03-1.97 11-30 | 4,639,850 | 2702 | 37.664 | 3993666 | 43.066 | 7444226 | 43.172 | | |
| 147,445 | 1.89-1.54 11-15 | 2,711,710 | 1451 | 51.545 | 998248 | 36.06 | 1660325 | 34.818 | | |
| 127,645 | 1.74-1.81 10-31 | 1,850,307 | 1181 | 49.559 | 567462 | 37.22 | 1014374 | 37.535 | | |
| 130,125 | 1.96-1.75 10-15 | 1,593,470 | 658 | 43.808 | 567017 | 46.975 | 1033328 | 46.766 | | |
| 113,522 | 1.96-2.04-1.86 09-30 | 1,004,856 | 1311 | 40.289 | 673498 | 29.581 | 1313054 | 29.577 | | |
| 123,835 | 1.90-2.03 09-15 | 768,300 | 617 | 24.889 | 728200 | 24.964 | 1493612 | 25.19 | | |
| 143,745 | 1.85-1.89 08-31 | 488,299 | 364 | 31.406 | 167400 | 13.414 | 306135 | 13.491 | | |
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