RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Fears of recession hammering Cu pricesHey golf, I would respectfully disagree with you on some points. Imho, we have not reached the depths of a full blown recession yet. A recession will usually hit its depth when labour and employment contract significantly. That hasn't happened yet as the labour market is still very strong. Labour is usually a lagging indicator as companies don't fire people at the first signs of trouble. But there are many indicators that I am watching that tells me ( and not only me but many of the experts that I follow not the clueless experts that have agenda ) that are signalling trouble ahead for the economy.
Look at the leading economic indicators and trends that are signalling trouble ahead. Look at the interest yield curve. It has never been so extremely inverted as it has now. Look especially at the 3mo/ 10Yr spread. It has been never been so inverted EVER. This indicator has almost a 100% accuracy rate for predicting an imminent recession. Look at what M2 ( the money supply ) is telling you. Its been falling hard indicating that credit is contracting and falling hard. Its not surprising that credit is now contracting fast as alot of the small regional banks are in big trouble now. 50 -75% of auto loans, mortgages, and commercial real estate loans originate from small regional banks.
For ancedotal evidence, try getting a loan at a bank now for a car loan or mortgage. Alot of people and friends I've talked too tell me they have to jump through hoops to get a load. A contractor friend I know told me the bank withdrew his line of credit and now he is facing bankruptcy as he can't pay his bills. This is happening all over. Look at what is happening with oil prices. Despite the cut in production from the Saudis it has fallen back below $70. Industrial metals like Cu, Zn, Ni have also started to fall. All the signs are pointed to a recession coming soon imho.
Well you can believe what you want, but I'm being totally objective with what I'm seeing. People should at least prepare now or hedge if they have exposure to cyclical stocks that will get hit hard during a recession imho.