RE:Soon, in the ten $9.5 million of EBITDA in a quarter is amazing. Eventually COVID tests will drop off, but if we allow the very conservative consideration of only 3 more quarters like that and then a complete drop-off to 0, we will have 40 million EBITDA for the year from tests alone.
Regarding the AI portion of the company, we can value based on 2020, which we have repeatedly heard was a bad year and OF COURSE IT WAS. Our company couldn't expand their international footprint as easily, couldn't talk to foreign governments, and were dealing with financially unsure entities. Despite this their gross profits from AI were 1.2 million. So even based on this expectadly terrible year, we could use a conservative a 20x multiple of gross profits to value this. Keep in mind, for gross multiples, PLTR = 54x, SHOP ~108x, CSU.TO >50x.
So we can value the tech at a conservative 20 million (based on an abysmally low multiple of a bad year) plus cash of 40 million at the end of the year. That's a BASE CASE of 60 million. That is without having any of the huge things coming to fruition and for whatever reason assuming we deserve these low multiples. Even with those assumptions, this stock cannot be valued at less than 60 million. I am happy if it does go lower, but it would be ridiculous to say that it is truly worth less than its current valuation of ~60 million.
At this level, this is a beautifully asymmetric trade. We already are at a wonderully low valuation. There is nothing to worry about, because we can never be truly valued at less than this using standard valuation models. So buying in even now, puts you almost risk-free on board for any of the littany of good things to come.
Do your own DD, these are just my opinions.
J