RE:If there is a buyout in the works..... I wish I had a dollar for everytime I wrote my thoughts on a buyout price....lol... I could sell my shares and retire south. From when I first got onboard till now, my thoughts have dramatically changed. Guessing at a target price for EGX is like trying to hit a bullseye on a dart board, blind folded and spun around 25 times.
This company, on paper, is worth $3.00+. IMHO. When FDN was bought by Kinross for aurelian for 1.2 Billion, there was no doubt!!
IMHO, FDN was sold too cheap. The only assumption as to why is to hurt other sales, or attempt to, of other mining exploration companies. Some people may think this and it could be very well so. IMHO, mining companies arent stupid, they know they arent going to buy a company cheap just because another company who had terrible dealings with the country sold their company so undervalued. There may be more to the FDN puzzle that we do not know about. Also, when FDN was sold, there was still a lot of speculation as to where Ecuador was going to be with the changing of the mining laws. Oil was still 50-80% higher than it is now...etc. We know a lot more about the mining laws now. Correa has been to China, borrowed a lot more money, lost a lot of exportation money on oil etc... Things have changed a lot in our favour in Ecuador. Ecuador have no choice but to get this laws into effect soon and starting making up for the loss in oil exports.
After the sale of FDN, which we have more resource value than, I thought we were likely screwed for getting the $$ we want. Now we have Ross Beaty getting in on ODN's play at .45 or so, without drilling results. Oil has dropped significantly as well. We know that once the laws are finalized, very soon, they cannot be changed for 15 years. This is huge for anyone looking to get into Ecuador as they have that extra peice of mind and buying us out is not such a gamble. EGX was ranked on the list of top 5 sites within ecuador as I had previously post. On the list was Odin, FDN, Miraodor and another few. These companies all have controlling agents already and or owned by mining companies. Eccoriente will be mining Mirador, Lundin with FDN and Beaty has said that they will be drilling and exploring for at least 2-3 years before they consider a sale. That leaves about 2 or 3 top vying companies to go to the auction block. EGX being one of them. Has anyone here ever been to the folton fish market in Boston and seen the Chinese bid on prized Tuna Fish???? lol, I picture EGX being like that.. there is a room full of Asians making there bids to get in on what can only be desribed as a prized, virtually unexplored, mining country that everyone wants to be a part of.
EGX's PEA will be based on a gold price roughly where we are right now and we may see what happened to INV where they used insanley high etal prices to base the PEA on. I do not think we will use as high numbers, but higher gold than we are now. This is something that the mining companies will take into account as well. These companies have Multiple engineers and analysts telling them where gold will be in the years to come. EGX is not going to be able to be in production for at least two years anyway. It costs between $400,000,000 and $600,000,000 just to setup the style of mill that we need to develop the low grade deposit. So if Glenn does use $1350/oz per say, and we sit at $1200/oz, we will ikely see the same type of panic and minimal gains INV saw. I do not think in any way that it is going to deter a smart mining company like the kind we are looing to get bought out by. They want to see hard numbers, not relative numbers to where we are right now. They will do that work themselves. We have already proven up the hard numbers we need and that wy we have had the interst we had before, just in a lowball offer figure. The PEA in hand, as Glenn called it, just proves what we have and cant be refuted.
So for the time being, I have no guesses as to what we will get. Smart money says we will get north of $2.00+. If Glenn and hold out. If not, we sell at $1.00. and we all get a pat on the back for the risk we took and for the loss of money we deserved, which is/was completely out of our control.
Cheers all !! Monday is looking like a news kind of day. Keep doing your DD, beyond EGX and see you on some other boards soon after!!