Gatekeeper Systems Inc V.GSI

Current price target (fiscal 2020)

[Captain71]

Good day all,

Calculated this way back in the summer and would like to see how my estimates compare to other fundamental investors.

Im sure each investor has thier own formula but I use a combination of Rev/share, Ebita/share, and EPS. I use multiples of these comparable with similiar companies and adjust for market cap and EV.

I wont drag out the post with numbers but I had calculated a price target of 0.72. That is now, before Q4 release. Would not have been surprised to see the SP trading significantly higher than my calculated target given all the positive news releases and anticipatied growth in fiscal 2021.

Just wanted to see how my estimates compare to other investors before I calculate a fiscal 2021 target price after Q1 release. Some revenue guidance from CEO in Q1 report would be nice, "hint hint" Doug.

Disclosure: I have shares GSI.

GLTA

[Torontojay]

I think it should be anywhere from 60-90 million market cap which is anywhere from 68 cents to $1 I like to see an increase in recurring revenue for me to see a valuation above $1   If they are awarded the 30 million Septa contract for the next year and other pilot projects(still speculative) then these present valuations would get crushed. The stock would likely trade in the $2-3 range

[Torontojay]

Motorola solutions has an enterprise value to sales ratio of about 4.5. In fact many hardware/software companies have ratios in excess of this number. If we value Gatekeeper using Motorola's EV/ sales metric then we can approximate Gatekeepers value using Motorola as an industry average. I expect Gatekeeper will have sales of 19 million for fiscal 2020. Gatekeepers enterprise value should

[Torontojay]

Fwiw Motorola solutions paid just over 2.5 times sales for Avigilon in 2018. Avigilon had an enterprise value of just over 1 billion to about 400 million in revenue.  Avigilon is a video/ surveillance company.   

[Torontojay]

At the time of Avigilon's purchase, Motorola was trading at an enterprise value to sales ratio of approximately 3.15. They saw value in purchasing Avigilon for just 2.5 times sales. Today's market values are much different than during that acquisition in early 2018. We see Motorola's enterprise value grow to about 4.5 times sales from 3.15 sales.  With similar gross margins to

[Torontojay]

Looks like my 80 cent target might happen today. 

[Captain71]

Lets see how it plays out. Wouldn't be surprised if it reaches that much or more now that Q4 is released and investors can start looking forward to what appears to be a pretty good fiscal 2021. GLTA

[Captain71]

Tks torontojay, nice to see our revenue estimate in line. I was expecting 19.2 million for fiscal 2020. I was using a multiple of 3.5 times rev/share to make up just over 30% of my SP target. BTW also expecting 2.9 million net income. Really looking forward to Q4 and Q1 release. I think next years numbers will be significantly higher. GLTA