RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Buyers "The value is based on the resource estimate"...the one that doesn't exist and that they have indicated may never be done?
I have heard all the answers "GBR didn't have a MRE", "potential acquirers have access to all the data" etc....
You have mentioned that Laurion is "locked and loaded", and is just what Barrick needs right now. I disagree. Laurion is at least 3-5 years from production and that would take significant capital. Capital that Laurion doesn't have.
A more likely target for Barrick in my opinion is Equinox. Equinox has a market cap 1.7 billion USD. Buying Equinox would add 500K of GEO/year now .They have a 60% interest in the Greenstone project (just down the road from the Ishkoday) that is scheduled to come online in 2024 with a lifespan of 14 years.
I think the fate of the Ishkoday is closely tied to the Greenstone project. If Barrick was to acquire Equinox, being able to levarage the resources and infrastructure set up for the Greenstone would make the Ishkoday that much more attractive.
Even with a 30% premium over the current market cap, that is 2 billion dollars. I think Barrick shareholders would see more value in that than acquiring a junior with a lot of risk.
The risk for Laurion is time. "Laurion has no need to raise money" is a common refrain here. That may be true at their current burn rate, but there is no question their costs are going up quite dramatically.
This year they have planned a small drilling program. Is that because their is sale pending? I don't think so. I think they are trying to conserve as much cash as they can while making their modelling more compelling to potential suitors.
If you were to look at it cyncially, one strategy would be to buy Equinox and wait Laurion out, but that all depends on how well Laurion manages their runway and what Cynthia's personal timeline is.
In the end which do you think is more assinine to Barrick shareholders?
1. Buying Equinox ~2B (makes money, has production)
2. Buy Laurion ~7.8B ($30/share) - at least 3-5 years away from production with significant risk