Laurion Mineral Exploration Inc V.LME

Buyers

[Anthony13]

Good morning all LME longs I know this question may have been discussed previously but I was wondering what peoples opinions are regarding buyers? Do you think they even have any potential buyers interested or are they just trying to put together all the proof of what's in the ground.  I'm not doubting if they isn't a crazy value potential here but just curious regarding buyers and discussions.  Any insight would be entertaining today since it has been very quiet lol.  All the best

[Lambosntendies]

Unforunately the only people that can truly answer that are people on the "inside". There no doubt that prospective buyers are/have looked into LME as an aquisition target and it is entirely possible a deal is in the works however until a formal offer/agreement is put forward all we can do is speculate. The end goal for the Ishkoday is to become a mine and everyday LMEs is taking steps

[matlas]

For sure Lambo. However, I think that many people would agree that the most likely buyer would be Barrick due to the following factors: 1) Having the size and resources to do a cash deal of the size required,  2) Statement a few months back about looking to increase presence in Canada, and 3) Statement a few months back suggesting that they would be looking to acquire a junior.

[JoJoHairBlo]

In regards to Barrick, they also initiated a share-buyback program a few months ago as well as quite a few company insiders bought up shares last year.  Maybe it's becuase Barrick has been generally undervalued in their eyes, or maybe they know something big is on the horizon.  Time will tell.

[matlas]

I don't think the share buy back program is new. It is definitely because they view their shares as being undervalued  Interestingly enough, this would fit in well with LME's insistance on an all cash deal. They would not want to issue shares on a buy out because they would have to use what, in their eyes, would be an undervalued price, to determine number of shares to issue.

[ilovexau]

There is no doubt there are interested parties, the number and quality of people watching Cynthia's LinkedIn posts is telling enough. But as Lambo states, no one knows until the paper is on the table. Regarding Barrick, I think they are a long shot. A major producer stepping up, although possible, would be against all normal progression of majors acquiring juniors. History shows majors leg in

[matlas]

For the record, I totally disagree on both counts. We are not dealing with "history"-we are dealing with now and LME is a very special situation. As far as independent investor group is concerned, I suggest that not likely.. Cynthia will only sell for very high price which is not going to leave any room for anyone to make much on "another flip". Time will tell!

[ilovexau]

That's the beauty of this forum Martlas, we can agree AND agree to disagree.  History is no indication of future, you are correct, but it is a good indicator of market psychology and anticipated behavior.  In terms of upside..... I am anticipating a buyout in the $7 to $10 range. This is more than justified at $2000 gold.  Push that to a modest $3000 in 5years and the upside

[Wmaver]

Equinox just down the road got a deal at 2170$ per ounce average. So the market is already pricing that in for their outlooks.

[Lambosntendies]

Out of curiousity.. What led you to come to a buyout target estimate of $7-10/share?

[matlas]

The most logical buyer is a company like Barrick. They are looking to replenish reserves and LME is all "locked and loaded" and ticks off all the boxes in terms of what they would seek. As previously stated, price will be al least $30-there is no way that Cynthia would sell for much less. That is why it is taking so long to announce a deal. We will see who is right-hopefully in the

[goldenI]

You are aware that is 85 times the current market cap? I only own 100 shares of Barrick but I would be in line to throw him out as CEO and check him into a facility if he even considered it.

[matlas]

Probably one of the most assinine comments I have ever read on this forum. The market cap, which is just based on the trading price of the small retail float, has absolutely zero relevance in terms of the actual vaue of the company. The value is based on the resource estimate, which in turn, is in no way reflected in the trading price of the small retail float.

[goldenI]

"The value is based on the resource estimate"...the one that doesn't exist and that they have indicated may never be done? I have heard all the answers "GBR didn't have a MRE", "potential acquirers have access to all the data" etc.... You have mentioned that Laurion is "locked and loaded", and is just what Barrick needs right now. I disagree

[goldenI]

Please disregard. Stockhouse really needs an edit or delete button. Barrick owns Equinox. Acquired in 2011.  That said, I still think the Ishkoday is closely tied to the Greenstone project and while with Barrick having through Equinox a 60% stake in that mine, the Ishkoday would be a nice add. However I still don't think Laurion's value exceeds that of Equinox right now.

[Lambosntendies]

Goldenl I understand where your coming from but I disagree on the idea that LME doesnt have a strong value appeal. Laurion is virtually impossible for us (as in "general public") to value as we dont have access to the LME data room.  We need to rest easy knowing that LME has had very positive results in last years drill programs with everything hole being a "hit". This

[matlas]

Great and eloquent posting Lambo!

[goldenI]

Thank you. I don't diagree with you (or matlas) that the SP is not necessarily indicative of Laurion's value for the reasons you mentioned, however I do think that it is related to the risks involved. In a MRE, you have indicated and inferred resources. The standard on determining indicated resources is typically a large number of drill holes in a concentrated area. Inferred

[goldenI]

Correction, I was looking at cached data from the Laurion website. The numbers were from 2018. This is what is on the website today. LAURION’s Ishkoday Gold and Base Metal Project is expanding on the legacy of its high-grade past-producing Sturgeon River Gold Mine with its significant database of geophysics, soil geochem, channel sampling, and 419 diamond drill holes, totalling 78,663 metres of

[JoJoHairBlo]

Not to be argumentative, but at the AGM late Sept., Cynthia priced the drilling in 2022 at $175 CAD/m.  Still a lot of money, but it cuts your figure by 30%

[matlas]

That's may not be  the only falacy here JoJo. Does it make sense to you that to establish a given amount of GEOs that there is s given amount of drliing you have to do? Wouldn't that depend on the specific property? If the area is very rich in gold, I would think you would  be able to estabilish a given number of GEOs with less drilling that in an area that is not as rich. How

[goldenI]

Sure. No issue at all. I got the $250/meter number from a google search an a quote from another junior miner in the area, but regardless, the cost is likely to increase year over year from Cynthia's number and it is still a lot of money that they do not have currently. https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1974-tsx-venture/tgol/135405-thunder-gold-announces

[Neil68]

Your posts raise some very valid points goldenI, thank you for that. Just curious about your final sentence: I think that the work that Laurion has done has not been sufficient so far in derisking the property as an acquisition target at a price the board (Cynthia) wants. Do we KNOW the price Cynthia and the board wants? Or are we just guessing? I often wonder where posters get their numbers

[goldenI]

I can't speculate as to where others are getting their numbers. In 2020 I emailed Laurion's PR with some questions and received an email from Roger Aquin offering a call. During the call he indicated a likely buyout would be north of 2.5 billion dollars. At the time I think the float was just over 250 million shares so just under $10/share I won't say he was speaking on behalf of the

[DAM$]

GoldenI, Although you only joined stockhouse in Aug last year I now understand why as you were getting all your info from Roger’s personal phone calls.    "In 2020 I emailed Laurion's PR with some questions and received an email from Roger Aquin offering a call." So non insider Roger emails you in response to an email sent to the company because an insider sent it to

[goldenI]

For the record I did not accuse him of providing insider information. I don’t think he said anything that wasn’t public. It has always been Laurion’s intent to validate 10M GEOs and the 2.5B+ price would fall in line with a reasonable expectation of price/ounce.   My hesitation on posting it is based on the last line of my post. The size of the float when it happens.   I don’t

[matlas]

"Also, I didn’t say the market cap is reflecting of the the value of Laurion. I have actually said the opposite in the past. My comment was that $30/share is 85 x the market cap. And I stand by the comment. If Barrick was to pay that now, every headline would mention it and questions would be asked. Especially without a 43-101." Another totally silly statement. Nobody with any sense

[Lambosntendies]

I wonder what a Roget and Cynthia think when(if) they read some of the posts on here. Part of me thinks they must get a good chuckle sometimes. 

[DAM$]

When you are caught in a lie, what you’ve lost forever is the equity of trust.    I don’t care if if you’re day trading your shares or not and predicting the buyout is the pastime for every investor. Discussing all the ludicrous conspiracy theories the board can dream up for the reason the share price is down is expected but your fabrication is getting called out.   

[goldenI]

Since you called my integrity into question...do you remember when these would come out, note the email address. But you are right on one thing, it may have been 2021. Those years sort of blend together...can't think why?

[goldenI]

For some reason, won't let me link https://imgur.com/a/Kqiewpl

[Mattheu11]

Just a quick question... what is the endgame w the back and forth post posturing? Seems like ppl looking for a reason to hate or defend positions? Personally looking forward to the work of LME coming to fruition in coming months. This thing is due! 

[goldenI]

Hey @Mattheu11. Good question. I am happy to leave it where it is. You have a similar opinion to many on here that it is due soon. I think you mean buyout. Might I ask why? For me it's not..., I think there is still high risk here and years on the horizon. It seems like there are lots who make it seem like money in the bank. I am just trying to figure out the reasons why.

[Lambosntendies]

Jr. Mining is high risk by nature, but with high risk comes high reward. Maybe there are years on the high horizon, maybe there are days. We can speculate all we want but ultimately none of us know what is going on behind the "curtain" we can conjecture and guess until we are blue in the face. I think if anyone does crack the case it will be "detective DAM$" haha I am coining

[VancouverLad]

Hey there goldenI, thanks for your messages on the board. I appreciate how you're taking into account a wide range of factors and considerations.  I was wondering, and pardon me if you've already said, but what would be some things that you'd feel are signs of an upcoming buyout? More exploring digging and positive results?  Personally, I love the thought of a

[goldenI]

Hey @VancouverLad,  I am looking for an investment by a third party as the next step to an eventual buyout. Somewhere around ~100 million. There is substansial drilling that would need to be done in order to validate the 10? million ounces to the CIM standards of indicated resources. I have compared it Equinox and their Hadrock acquisition elsewhere so I won't repeat it here but if you

[matlas]

I think that most serious and intelligent readers who are familiar with LME will realize how totaly ridiculous this is,  and it is absolutely impossible that matters would unfold that way. Every time GoldenI posts something, it is sillier than the last and he digs himself a hole that is deeper than anything that LME has ever drilled. Enough said.

[gellometrics]

i mean honestly he brings up some good points and some nice discussion topics. there is no need to bash an opinion of someone else. he brought his opinion with some things to back up why he feels that way. i think he is taking a logical approach to it all and providing another perspective without completely bashing on everything, its nice to have some other takes to reduce the amount of echo

[Golddust89]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[matlas]

Yes, a couple of years ago, I snuck up to the mine at night with a drill that I towed up, I drilled lots of holes, put them in the back of a truck, and then had them analysed back in TO. All kidding aside, I have no "research or due diligence". Months ago, I posted why I think $30 plus. I base this strictly on thing that Rogers has posted over the months. I believe him to be a

[matlas]

No, he does not bring up any good points. His premise is totally idiotic. For one thing, to raise that kind of additional equity, there would be a tremendous amount of dillution of the holdings of all shareholders-do you think they are going to want that? However, more to the point, to believe his basic premise, that they have to do lots more drilling to prove even 10 million (GEO), which I am

[gellometrics]

i dont think all of his numbers are correct, but what i was trying to get at is that if they want to increase the size from inferred to indicated it would take more drilling (whether that be in the same areas to upgrade to indicated, or new holes to expand the zone). i also thought it was a pretty interesting point about equinox mines. not everything he said is correct or the right ball park of

[VancouverLad]

Watched the spotted dog video, thanks for linking that. Is your thinking that with more drilling and exploration they'd remedy any concerns that they've got a spotted dog situation? Additionally, if they do more exploration they'll be able to show how much worth they have, etc. 

[goldenI]

Yes, that is correct. In addition to resampling and doing quality assurance (which I think is ongoing).  The point is that that if you look at drill results some holes get an overall grade for the hole and some may include lines that says something like XXg/t over 1 meter. There can be large variations of grade over short distances. The further away you are from the measured core, the

[VancouverLad]

Gotcha @goldenI. Thanks for the response and explanation.  I guess I'll keep DCAing and patiently wait. ;) 

[Lambosntendies]

I’ve come to the following numbers which assume meeting/exceeding Cynthia’s target 10m GEO and a price of $300CAD per GEO based on recent sales with a “premium” price of $350CAD per GEO. I won’t get into all the details again on why we have a potential premium price over other recent sales I feel all the advantageous factors have been discussed thoroughly on here.    10,000,000(GEOS

[matlas]

One can reasonably debate and speculate about who would be a better target for Barrick. I don't agree with your analysis at all, but that was not the point of this exchange. Rather, nothing changes the fact that the value of LME (whatever that is) is in no way tied into its market cap. Furthermore, your statement about resource estimate not existing is also ridiculous. It may not be publicly

[GoldBelt]

Cmon be realistic!! I would love to see $30 a share! I'd be able to retire before 50 and buy a yacht to cruise the oceans alongside Cynthia and her husband LOL $30cdn /share x approx 260 million outstanding shares eqates to roughly $8Bcdn or $6B USD "Barrick Gold reported $4.44B in Cash and Equivalent for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2022" https://tradingeconomics.com/abx:cn:cash

[Sheerms]

One thing I sometimes wonder is if they are waiting for a price surge in gold. Both her and Roger continually keep mentioning super cycle. In this video from a while back Cynthia says "This is the first cycle we are really totally in sync with. We've missed every previous cycle. We missed the 2011 cycle." From 2009 to topping out in 2011 the price of Gold serged 85% from its previous