RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Buyers For the record I did not accuse him of providing insider information. I don’t think he said anything that wasn’t public. It has always been Laurion’s intent to validate 10M GEOs and the 2.5B+ price would fall in line with a reasonable expectation of price/ounce.
My hesitation on posting it is based on the last line of my post. The size of the float when it happens.
I don’t know what the intent of your post is. Every comment is factual. I found myself over invested and in need of cash in February (RRSP time). I sold a sizeable amount of my holdings. I have dollar cost averaged down since. The stock seems to trade in a narrow band for a while and then jump up or down 20% (sometimes on no news). Currently I think we may see drop to 0.27-0.29 and potential movement to the mid 40s. I expect that there will not be much news till results of resampling or drilling come in and will base buying and selling on that.
Trading the stock and holding a position for a buyout are separate things.
I think the purpose of the forum is to share insight and ask questions. Overall I would say that I am positive on the company. I have never presented a scenario where investors are going to lose. As to Laurion’s plans...I like John Lennon’s theory...life is what happens while you are busy making them. I don’t think anyone could have anticipated the financial situation the last couple of years, first with the pandemic then inflation. The ability to raise capital is a significant risk to any junior, and Laurion identifies this in every financial statement. I believe Laurion doesn’t have enough data to produce a 43-101 that would indicate a proven 10M GEOs. I am not saying it isn’t there. I also believe that producing a MRE with inferred amounts wouldn’t move the needle in stock price or buyouts these days. I have seen a few MREs lately of Ontario miners with inferred resources of 4M+ GEOs and the stock has fallen as a result.
Taking a resource from inferred to indicated is cost-intensive process. I think that Laurion is going to have to spend tens of millions in order to do it. It’s possible that it happens with a strategic partnership with someone like Orion Mine Finance, but that will involve significant dilution and time.My point is this, Laurion goal is a buyout. Let’s say 2.5 billion. ~$9/share (current). ~10M GEOs. Assuming they would need half the sample size of the Hadrock to accurately measure it, and the drilling costs are $175/meter that is north of $47M. They could year on year issue warrants and continue drilling 10k+ meters a year, or they could get a capital infusion (leg-in as it’s been referred to here). Regardless, at the current valuation (the market cap does mean something) the float would increase to 4-500 million. The end result $4-5/ share.
If Laurion could produce a MRE where 2 million ounces are indicated, and could fetch $250-$300/ounce in the short term without significant dilution, that is $2-3/share.
Which is better? How does time factor?
I think the Greenstone is the key is unlocking the potential value in Laurion. The mine is set to open next year and Equinox has spent a lot of money of the infrastructure and resources. I do not know mine logistics but if the processing plants could also be used for the Ishkoday you have an economy of scale that increases that value of Laurion for Equinox. Assuming it would take 3-5 years before the Ishkoday would be ready there may be a great synergy there at a great time.
I am not saying anything negative about management. I think they are doing the best that they can in the circumstances. They never promised a buyout at a given time and my posts are more a conservative response to the “Kool-aid” I have seen here. I don’t think they are as far along as people think, and I do think there is timeline that may require a re-evaluation of the exit strategy.
Also, I didn’t say the market cap is reflecting of the the value of Laurion. I have actually said the opposite in the past. My comment was that $30/share is 85 x the market cap. And I stand by the comment. If Barrick was to pay that now, every headline would mention it and questions would be asked. Especially without a 43-101.