RE:RE:RE:CfoHi Ebenizer3,
Thanks for this information and I will not question the source, however I have a slight problem with the timing (and we all know that we're working with incomplete information in the dark here).
Before I start the analysis, disclaimer: we had a very good day folks, so I don't want to be perceived as the spoilsport. And actually there is nothing to spoil, the play looks great, the SP action certainly speaks in this direction (should we not expect a bit more volume with real good news, even if it was just a leak? I will leave this to people who understand stock market dynamics. In all cases it's a great run up so I think nobody here in the community is unhappy with that).
So, coming back to "running wireline, will be drilling ahead by Thursday evening": I understand this, in plain English, as "they're running wireline today i.e. Tuesday and they will drill ahead Thursday" and this, regardless of our guesses regarding their operational status, is the portion I'm sceptical about (but there is a case that makes sense and we will come back to that one).
No misunderstandings, I'm not putting into question anybody's information or intuition. So we will base the present analysis on them running wireline today.
In an exploration well, most wireline operations are performed openhole i.e; without casing (or liner). I am speaking here under the authority of more competent people in subsurface data acquisition than myself, there are at least 2 within the regular participants of this board, but in my experience I've seen most if not all data acquisition by wireline in an exploration well performed with wireline in openhole, not behind casing.
Basically, you drill with an MWD tool that sees stuff as you drill but this MWD is part of the bottomhole assembly and it conveys information in a limited bandwith to surface, the resolution and the depth of investigation is not as great as you can get with wireline, therefore when you see interesting stuff (or even if you don't see interesting stuff but you go through what should have been a target reservoir), you run wireline, it's a suite of tools at the end of an electric cable, you have real-time transfer of data with much higher bandwidth and you see much better / deeper in the formation etc.
You can perform wireline operations through a cased hole but as stated above, you normally do that in openhole, because you get better information in openhole logging for an exploration well.
Now, based on that one, I have a problem with the statement of the timing (but I also have a solution).
The problem is the following: If they are running wireline today, for data acquisition in what is our secondary target i.e. the Campanian, they cannot then set a liner, cement it, perform a leak-off test and drill ahead on Thursday, the time is just too short. It would be at least for Saturday and any drilling superintendent worth his salt would put that kind of 96-108 hours timing in his lookahead, not 48 hours i.e. till Thursday.
Just to be exhaustive for the options: you also do not run wireline halfway through in a section being drilled to then pull your wireline out and continue to drill the same section; I mean, in that case the timing Tuesday-Thursday would make sense but it's just not something that is done in my experience (caveat: my experience, like any other, is not infinite and maybe, maybe there are people out there who drill a section to some depth, log the interval and continue drilling with the same diameter etc; I would be surprised, especially in a formation like here where we know that there are staibility issues, ballooning etc). So, maybe this is the case but I give it a very small probability.
The only other option I can think of, regarding them running wireline now and drilling ahead on Thursday, would be if they have run the 11-3/4" and cemented it and they want to run a Cement Bond Log (CBL/VDL or USIT etc, the names are not important) to be sure of the quality of the cement before moving onto the next section. Not a common thing to do on a contingency drilling liner but it could happen and is a more likely scenario than the one just above.
In all cases, the most important part of the message is here below:
If they have effectively been running wireline today, as analysed above, it may mean either:
-that they have run the 11-3/4", which would be great news because it would open the highway to the Campanian with all hole stability issues being left behind us;
-or that the hole is sufficiently stable to run wireline, in which case, again, the highway is open to the Campanian (and maybe they have just drilled through the Campanian and are in fact logging it - I find it unlikely based on my latest analysis where I was claiming that the Campanian was for this weekend but as stated several times, I was hoping to be wrong and if I was wrong and my shares have run up 26% today as a consequence of me being wrong, I will take it....)
In all 2 (2 and a half) possibilities stated above, it's just good news. I mean, if they have factually been running wireline today, where we know them to be in their operation, it is really, really a differentiatior regarding the operational safety of the coming days and the drilling performance on this well.
GLTA,