RE:RE:RE:well decline ratesJust an a few crunched numbers curlews,
I wanted to have an estimates on a decline rates that would make their number a little more understandable... i'll post them, probably going to get a few insult and a 1 star rating for methodology but anyway here it is...
i took dec 31 exit production and add as per PR or the Corporate presentation the flow of new wells. After that i compare the results with the disclose montly production and search for a montly rate that would make the last month number in line with what you would expect... and then i annualised considering it's usually a logarythmic curve... anyway here's the number...
| | | | annualised | 29,75% | | | | | |
| | | | monthly | 2,90% | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | estimate prod w/dec | well addition | decline | Next mth prod | real prod | based on | | | |
| January prod | 4801 | 431 | -139 | 5093 | 4669 | Balay online and LM7 operational 2/3 of the month |
| February prod | 5093 | -350 | -148 | 4596 | 4224 | LM7 shut in in at the end of feb | | |
| March prod | 4596 | 160 | -133 | 4622 | 4575 | LM8 online for 8 day in april LM 5 offline on april 15 |
| April | 4622 | 527 | -134 | 5015 | 4650 | LM7 back online+LM8 fully operational + Lm5 online mid-may |
| May (prod E on Q2) | 5015 | 438 | -145 | 5307 | 4800 | Gap seems to be explain in part by major Op. problem |
| June (Prod E on Q2) | 5307 | 500 | -154 | 5653 | 5653 | LM9 online | | | |
based on well producing as per PR test as following ;
| | | wells addition | WI of PTA | put on prod | |
| Last Yr exit with LM6 | 4801 | | | | |
| Balay-4 | | 544 | 82 | maybe feb | |
| LM5 | | 1750 | 875 | before dec | |
| LM7 | | 1049 | 525 | Near start feb | |
| LM8 (test April 22th) | 1200 | 600 | 22 april | 8 day on april and the rest on May |
| LM9 | | 1000 | 500 | Near start of May |
like i said it's was only done to make sure there wasn't an alarming rate on the new wells that wasn't disclose...
anyway, probably get a few insult like everytime i post DD... lol
white