Correction - Estimation of financial resultsIn consideration of the corrected press release issued by the company which shows an addition of 439 ounces of gold to Q4 gold production, here is my corrected publication. For this estimate of financial results, I have developed a scenario that considers some Q4-specific features.
The first particularity concerns the 3834 ounces of gold produced in 2021-Q3 and sold at the start of 2021-Q4. According to the average value of gold in 2021-Q4, this sale will generate an additional income of $8684010 (3834 x $2265).
The second particularity concerns the limitation linked to the transport of gold, caused by the Christmas holiday and which therefore postpones the sale of part of the production to the following quarter. Assuming that the last delivery of gold was made on the 15th day of December, the sale of 1/6 of the gold production will be shifted to 2022-Q1, i.e. 2245 ounces of gold for an income of $5,084,925.
As expressed in the press release issued on January 18, 13,471 ounces of gold were produced in 2021-Q4. Therefore, I estimate that 15060 ounces of gold (13471 + 3834 - 2245) were sold, for a total revenue of $34110900. Since the official opening of the factory in January 2017, this income is the third best result of the last 20 quarters.
To take into account the quantity of ore processed, mining royalties and the higher depreciation of fixed assets resulting from the increase in the quantity of gold sold, Robex will obtain an operating profit of approximately $19,498,841. This operating result is the second best of the last 20 months.
Regarding financial charges, it should be noted that a bank loan ended last October. For each year, an additional $1,000,000 will be directed to cash flow rather than debt repayment. Considering all repayments made, I estimate that Robex's total debt will be less than $4,000,000 as of December 31, 2021.
As for earnings per share in 2021-Q4, it will be $0.0331, up 71,50% for the comparable quarter. On an annual basis, this result will be $0.0718, down 5.65% compared to 2020.
For the year 2021, I estimate that Robex will generate $57,080,384, a decrease of $12,561,082. Despite the fact that no dividend payments were made in 2021, it should be understood that gold sales are dependent on a POG in the markets which is $112 lower. In addition, investments of several million dollars have been allocated to the stripping of 4 new pits to ensure more flexibility during extraction and thus ensure continuous supply to the plant for many years. These major investments were entirely financed from the cash flows generated, without recourse to debt.
As suggested by the January 21 press release, we can expect 2022 to process a much larger amount of ore with a higher gold grade than 2021. At the same time, less stripping, debt reduction and a new solar energy source will help increase profits. Regarding the POG, it is a positive start to the year and the fundamentals suggest that the gold sector could become a sector to be favored.
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