RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Skinmedica Dark spot remover turnover Ok
If Abbvie signed in June, then raw materials would be ordered this year and next, packaging, marketing, and launch preparation activities all have to unfold. This process takes 8-18 months from the date of deal signing depending upon how fast things were moving prior to the deal being signed.
As I have said before, a leading indicator of their planning cycle is the registration of new trademarks.
If Abbvie or Allergan were registering trademarks prior to the announcement of the deal with Sirona (did someone here point that out?), then they were likely in the pre-planning mode already and are intending on moving out on the more quick end of schedule.
If no milestones are in play prior, that means that second half of 2023 will be the launch or very early 2024. Sales of new product including 1067 subject to royalties will replace existing product, and any new additional sales risk will be limited to brand new products and markets they plan to enter.
My calculations say that without considering the impact of a upfront payments for sglt2 pets deal or other deal like anti-aging in 2023 or anti-virual, then they could turn their first profit in Q1 2024.
If one of the prior mentioned deals surfaces, then that could make them profitable almost instantly, depending upon the upfront amount, and therefore 2024 and 2025 becomes a completely different financial years as the second major pipeline (and potentially third) starts adding up/snowballing quickly.
The share price today assumes none of that happens in my opinion. So if you think any of this is likely, then that is the discount play.