Sirona Biochem Corp V.SBM

Skinmedica Dark spot remover turnover

[SironaInvestor]

Does anyone knows some financials from the current dark spot remover? If Skinmedica makes 10 Mio per annum and Sirona is getting 5 percent royality, then Sirona can't be a profitable company from that Deal.

[MirrorWorldMan]

Howie said in the PR they were able to do revenue forcasts and be profitable/ so show us long term owners and stop the hemorrhaging 

[Turtle4]

Of course, Allergan has shown Howie phantasie forecast figures. Only if you estimate extremely high sales can you get howie to accept a low royalities percentage. and minimize the upfront.  If allergan had realistic sales figures in the forecast, the deal would fall through because howie would see that the royalities were not enough. Or he would insist on a high upfront

[jimmyhorizon]

let's have a little guess -R&F 50k upfront 6kg 8.000 USD = 48k -Allergan 500k upfront 250k milestones 2m in annual sales would mean 100k in revenue at 5% royalties (x 17 years = 1,7m) -total value =2.548k Is that realistic for a Dark Spot remover? after all, it is only an add on Not exactly what they told us investors but at least a little turnover. there will be no profitable

[biorun]

A couple thoughts: 1. the raise would not come until when they need it, at earliest if no deal is yet signed somewhere in q1 2023.  2. your allergan numbers - not sure where you are getting you data but they don't correspond with a dollar amount which would make them whole. Allergan and Abbvie forecasts would be the reference point which the deal was premised and the company statements.

[jimmyhorizon]

to 2. yes, please give us allergan and abbvie forecasts! my figures are based on my feelings. then the behaviour of sirona and prc would make sense. I am pretty sure that I am much closer to the truth than Sirona (estimate of 1b in 2016) or prc, who have  predicted 10-20m upfront and annual royalties of 8-32m USD in the now de-published article from february 2022. to 3. the conditional

[biorun]

Ok If Abbvie signed in June, then raw materials would be ordered this year and next, packaging, marketing, and launch preparation activities all have to unfold. This process takes 8-18 months from the date of deal signing depending upon how fast things were moving prior to the deal being signed. As I have said before, a leading indicator of their planning cycle is the registration of new

[jimmyhorizon]

you are making progress. after the r&f deal was signed and tfc 1067 was supposed to be a companychanging event for r&f, the product launch was always 1-2 weeks around the corner. good. good.

[lscfa]

Most reviews of dark spot reducers cite Skinmedica's high prices as a negative so their market share is probably small.