Theralase Technologies Inc. V.TLT

36x-70x upside based on similar BTD for BCG-unresponsive

[ScienceFirst]

Again, IBRX, for the exact same indication than us, was valued @ 150MM$US before the FDA Breakthrough designation (Dec. 4, 2019). 

(Sitting @75MM$US, we're 50% below that mark)  

 

Then IRBX was valued @2.7B$US 6 weeks later (Jan. 17, 2020) (36x more than our current market valuation of 75MM$US).  

 

Then IRBX was valued @5.2B$US in July 2020 (70x more than our current market valuation of 75MM$US).

(Note: IBRX would have reached that 5.2B$US valuation 2-3 months earlier in normal times as the arrival of COVID-19 in mid-Jan. to end of March created a pullback on the markets.  The chart is very clear on that).

 

ImmunityBio Market Cap 2014-2021 | IBRX

 

So they were relatively unknown (150M$US) before their Breakthrough designation on Dec. 4, 2019.  It put them on the map.   The volume at the bottom of the chart above shows that.

 

Dec. 4, 2019 - ImmunityBio Granted FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for N-803 IL-15 Superagonist in Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

 

Nov. 29,2019  ... 140MM$US 

Dec. 4, 2019 ...   150MM$US ... FDA grants Breakthrough designation

Dec. 6, 2019 ...   270MM$US

Jan. 17, 2019 ...  2.72B$US (18x from their BTD news)

Mar. 30, 2020 ...  1.00B$ ... (COVID-19 arrived so the pullback was normal)

July 10, 2020 ...  5.27B$US ... (36x from their BTD news, once the COVID-19 cooled down

Today ...              2.5G$US valuation (17x from their BTD news)

[Legit62]

If we are valued 70x more after breakthrough, our stock price would be $25.45. I would be very happy with that. Even at 30x our share price would be $10.90, again not bad. If this cancer treatment is as good as everyone is predicting, we could be much higher than these figures within a couple years, IMO

[Benedictus]

  They have one lead indication with a potential $1.1 to 1.7B annual market opportunity at commercialization .  Assume a conservative market cap valuation of 1 to 2X peak sales potential. Share structure of around 280M yields a price target of $12ish on the high end.  

[Oilminerdeluxe]

Nice numbers. Makes me salivate. That BTD, three magic letters. Hope we can get a comment on how that is going whenever they tell us something again. Feels like a decade since last time they did. Ugh. Exciting times though. If there ever is a time for that get rich-plan, I think this is the best one.

[Lesalpes29]

@Oilminerdeluxe now I'm impatiently waiting for NR!

[Oilminerdeluxe]

I suspect we are  quite a few starving for that NR right now:-)  Let's just hope it is worth the wait, lol. I will break otherwise.

[iknowsmthing]

For those of a certain age this kinda feels like that Ketchup Commercial from several years ago! The song Anticipation played in the background, while the ketchup bottle was held upside down and the person holding the bottle eagerly awaited for that drop of Ketchup to fall. The song Anticipation should be the theme song for us Theralase shareholders! Haha  GLTAL our patience will be

[Rumpl3StiltSkin]

you mean several decades ago? 

[ScienceFirst]

IBRX had the same addressable market and they have been valued at what I posted. 

[xodcode]

I'm a believer in the huge upside potential of TLT, so just took out a few more shares at .455 this AM. As previously mentioned, looking forward to breaking through .48 and then .58 resistance at which pont we may quickly realize significant upside price movements.

[ScienceFirst]

We could be valued a bit higher considering that IBRX is used in combo with BCG and that BCG is in shortage. But lets live with these numbers for the moment as they are a reality, based on identical indication.  The rest would only be speculative. Also, any upfront payment from a jv would be around 1B$US+.  Right there, that would bring our valuation to around 5$US+/share.  And

[99942Apophis]

Very true ScienceFirst we could be and will be valued much higher than a multiple of current share price. An awarded BTD would value the share price on speculated earnings for NMIBC in its first year of commercialization, something I've drawn up in a possible evaluation in the past. Although all my projections were only taken on capturing 10% of the market in Theralase's first year there