Tudor Gold Corp V.TUD

Should Tudor buy out AMK now?

[rockport1]

Given that Tudor is only receiving 60% of the benefit for every dollar spent, should they consider a buyout of AMK now?  Then they would be receiving 80% benefit for every dollar spent, with Teuton the remaining 20% free ride.

With today's market conditions, could they do so with an all share offer?  Would this dilution be worth it?  I ask about AMK because Teuton is so slow to spin-out their Treaty Creek interest, which, arguably, would make it more difficult to acquire.  

Comments?

[fordster]

That is a great idea Rockport. It's either Tudor or someone else. The only problem is coming up with a valuation on this "moving target"

[rockport1]

I guess that is a question for AMK shareholders.  For example, would you accept a 20% premium to market in an all stock deal?  You would still receive the benefits of 80% of the Treaty Creek development going forward.  The cost of the premium is no more free ride.    Curious what AMK shareholders would find acceptable.  Please chime in.

[Larry60]

Rockport, Pleas see my previous post.  I think $0.25 cents at current TUD share price of $0.92 is a starting point for discussions.  Ultimately, I dont think  most AMK SHs will be particularily interested in any deal as nothing beats a free carry.

[rockport1]

Reasonable analysis, essentially a 100% premium to market.  Which probably means it is too steep for Tudor.  I would guess that the max they would pay would be far below that.  Remember, that over that time period, AMK has had a 73% increase in shares outstanding, so there is still significant dilution taking place, even with the free carry.

[Larry60]

Rockport, agreed that it is unlikely to happen. it it didnt happen back when AMK traded at a massive discount, cant see it happening now. WIth AMK now a pure TC play, dilution will be minimal e.g. $600k a year would be way more than enough which really doesnt even register on the dilution scale as much as I hate to see money go out the door. What all this brings us back to is TUO/AMK is way

[rockport1]

You would think that $600k a year would be enough, but review the financial statements.  From 2016 to 2022 (2023 not released yet), they averaged 12% dilution every year.  For the amount of activity in AMK, somebody(s) is/are very well paid. 

[HIGHonLITHIUM]

Rockport, another one of your skewed and biased "factual reports" . Laughable at best. You calculate AMK dilution since 2016 and fail to point out the main factors. On purpose? Sure looks like it. The FACTS are that prior investors, the biggest of which is Eric Sprott, were exercising warrants as the share price was rising. This accounts for most of the new shares issued. "Averaging

[Larry60]

I thought ROckport was actaully biased toward TUD in his analysis.  You need to stop gettin HighonLithium!!!!!  its skewing your judgement Rockports takeout scenario is worth a thought!  But, as Ive said many times,. the opportunity for consolidating all 3 amigos was a few years ago.  I think most would have taken realtive share exhange (based on ownership in TC) which would

[HIGHonLITHIUM]

Larry, you obviously didn't go back and look at Rockport's track record of posts did you? Biased, agenda driven, skewed...and worse. But, you also have your own agenda going here so its not surprising that you didn't care to have a look.       

[Larry60]

I was responding to his post(s), not his life story. Sorry.

[rockport1]

Please give details of bias, agenda driven, skewed, and worse.  I will try to do better next time.  If you are here for shareholder value, here are the annualized share price returns for the Treaty Creek Three since December 31, 2016, the first year of the joint venture.  2017:  TUD -27.6%, AMK -16.7%, TUO +17.6% 2018:  TUD -42.9%, AMK -40.0%, TUO -50.0% 2019:  TUD

[rockport1]

HighonLithium, you are really hurting my feelings.  I wish you wouldn't be so harsh (sad emoji).  I come on this board to discuss ideas and learn from other posters about the Treaty Creek properties, investment ideas, etc.  I would hope others do the same; we can learn from each other. Despite what you think, I do not have any ill will toward AMK, TUD or TUO.  From my

[bigboy999]

Well put rockport1. I'm no stranger myself to ad homenin attacks when I've posted what I feel have been factual comparisons. The three TC partners are all banking on TC being a good investment, which I would agree it is, but the stakes for each partner and their shareholders differ substantially and that's where I think comparisons are healthy. So I'll contine to point out what I

[rockport1]

Well put BB!

[Larry60]

Looking like tha streak will continue.  9 consecutive red/down days.  Pleeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzz dont tell me its just the market and this is normal..............plllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

[bigboy999]

Rockport1 posted: "You would think that $600k a year would be enough, but review the financial statements.  From 2016 to 2022 (2023 not released yet), they averaged 12% dilution every year.  For the amount of activity in AMK, somebody(s) is/are very well paid." I would call that an understatement Rockport1. In light of that I'm curious that in the event of a buy-out what

[Larry60]

a few more points I forgot to mention: 1)  AMK burns through more cash than TUO.  Dino runs TUO like a tight ship.  AMk has about $800k of cash expesnses last year, TUO had about 1/2 and theyre runing a real company with other assets and cash flow (earn in payments) 2)  TUO, aside from its TUD NSR and 25+ other properties/nsrs, also has a portfolio of traded securties. 

[rockport1]

Perhaps the smart thing is for a third party miner to swallow up both AMK and TUO.  That they will have a carried 40% interest.  Let Tudor do all the heavy lifting until production time.

[Larry60]

Rockport, I'd agree. Most approach the opposite, and in my view wrong, way which is a majore should buy TUDOR to start.  But if anything, it should be what your proposed Having said that, I still think its highly unlikely for too many reasons to get into now but still a possibility.

[Larry60]

rockport, if we look at todays market prices, AMKs "value" should be made up of: 1) 20% piece of TC relative to TUD's 60% piece, and 2) The value of AMK's free carry to production decision. The answer to 1 above is easy:  $0.1788 based on exisitng TUD sahre price but would likely been to be adjusted upward to factor in all of TUDs outstanding warrants. The anwer to 2 is

[Larry60]

BullRUnz, We have 3 owners of TC:  TUD, AMK and TUO We have 1 funder for 100% of costs to get to exploration decision:  TUD So who are you going to invest in, other things being equal?:  TUD who funds 100% of costs, or AMK/TUO that get a FREE RIDE to production????? Enough with the sophistry.  Face the facts staring us in the face!!!  

[fordster]

Stop The Ficticious Undertones Larry.

[Larry60]

Fordy, If you disagree with my last post, you clearly are looking to burn $$$$ TUD doesnt have a choice but to fund 100% eventhogh they only own 60% - its the deal they made and have to live with.  But investors DO have a choice - free ride, or fund 100%.  TUD would have to drop drastically vs AMK/TUO to make it a relative buy If you disagree with that, I have some swamp land to sell