RE:POGMarcus, we all know predicting the course of markets is a fraught exercise.
I’d look at the longer charts and rely on traditional relationships. No question in the past two weeks money flows driven by vaccine confidence have chased the modest risk-on yields from earnings available from the equity markets. Gold remains cheap to hold, the dollar remains on trend to weaken, Covid damage and fiscal demands would seem to support a weakening dollar as well.
Uncertainties concerning fiscal stability are not resolved. The current price action looks more like a trading movement than a change in the fundamentals - low rates, high debts and deficits, continuing global financial uncertainties and volatility.
One thing that is interesting is the confidence in the strength or resilience of US enterprise equity - the market action has been extremely bullish, chasing yield and earnings to be sure, but essentially confident either in balance sheet stability, or in a new “Yellen/FED” put removing downside correction risk. Seems overconfident to me.
cg