RE:RE:RE:RE:AMK at .28 Tuo should at least be over 2.80 .I have a very short ignore list, most people however opinionated they are, or I disagree with, I just scroll by, an opinion is an opinion. The internet is a wide open place, some misuse of public forums just isn’t worth bothering about. I put our new poster (join date Nov. 20, an initial flag it is a multiple alias or who knows what nonsense) on ignore within the first three or four stupid posts.
So I am getting secondary vibrations I was slagged for using conditional words discussion possible direction of the markets, USD and gold.
First, the Senate run-offs in Georgia are very important for the next two years of American government policy. Huge uncertainty - and actually a reason I am personally wary of a swoon if the Dems don’t pull off a generational surprise in Georgia - GOP/Moscow Mitch control of the Senate will be a major brake on Biden - and the suffering of a large number of Americans doesn’t seem to motivate his caucus.
Second, the current world economy has never faced a pulsating economic disruption like Covid, we don’t know how long vaccine rollout and health normalcy will take, but more importantly we don’t know the extent of damage done. Subsidy has flowed to weakened businesses and resilient ones, when it I stood removed there may still be cascading business failures, or not? It is new territory. We do not know in particular the extent to which business and consumer behaviours during the pandemic will have lasting effect - on consumer behaviour, travel, consumption, and new business methods like remote work from home. The Depression generation remained exceptionally thrifty through to the late 1950’s and were a drag on economic growth.
Finally, we are in the class of people who have money to speculate/invest. The bottom 1/3 or so of households do not. They are flat broke, living with welfare program support, food banks, Medicaid, food stamps etc.,. Overwhelmingly less skilled or educated, retail, hospitality workers but also important consumers who spend a greater portion of their income on immediate consumption when they can’t be employed and earn a decent wage. Many have lost their jobs. Think of an economy like Las Vegas or Orlando. How will they fare and how much stimulus or lack thereof to the overall consumer economy will these households have? We just don’t know and will have to see the data and market movements as they come.
Finally, all market predictions, observations into the future are probabilities only, from high probabilities to low. One invests and speculates with a view to what I see most probable according to one’s own model of the likely future behaviour of the markets. And the conditions are dynamic, from solid long term trends observed, to what the philosophers called “the beat of a butterfly”s wing” in some distant, unknown place, that might set in motion a chain of events that alter the path of human history.
As Keynes said “When circumstances change, I change my position. What do you do?”
So to repeat, watch the course of the US dollar in particular. PM’s almost always have a hard time if the dollar is the immediate principal beneficiary of risk-off movements from equity and bond investment pools.
We’ll see as we go along.
cg