RE:RE:Explosion In Demand Coming Everyone* is sitting home on their butts right now. (*A good portion of citizens). I think the distribution of the vaccines will be rolled out at max speed since Trump has been planning this for a year; he ordered vials produced by the millions well before there was a vaccine; he's assigned distribution to army logistics, which is something the military does well.
With that in mind, there has to be a surge in cars hitting the roads; thus oil should rally. People go back to work, restaurants that survived will reopen. Young people are virtually unaffected by COVID but older folks and those with comorbidities are; so the vaccines should be prioritized for first responders, doctors and nurses; then old age facilities; active adult communities and possibly athsmatics, diabetics, etc. will also be at the top of the distribution chain.
I'm not an expert on economics; I'm just looking and recognizing what's in front of me. The surviving companies should pick up the slack from the businesses that had to close.
But the states that went without a good portion of their sales taxes; businesses that used to pay huge state taxes may falter or fold and I'm sure the big deficit states now have even greater deficits and the fed is going to be forced to flood the markets with cash just to keep states like NY and CA afloat.
I don't think anyone can predict when things will happen but there will be savvy folks who understand charts, which may give us a warning.
Maybe someone else wants to chime in here. I feel that Trump kept the bubble rolling but if we slow the pace of expansion with huge taxes on carbon and mandating alternate energy before it is practical and cheap, the market slows and everything goes... Just a guess. I'd be rich if I could give you a date this will begin.
On the other side, guys like Zorg just stay clear of the market, period, with the exception of resource stocks. He is comfortable with that strategy an maybe he's right. I guess he feels when the shipt hits the fan, it may be too late to get out. I don't know if he posted that here or if he shared it with me personally.
I should be an analyst; I've said a lot of words that add up to pretty much nothing! Or maybe I'll run for President!