Teuton Resources Corp V.TUO

Impact of the Election

[stockzorg]

I don't believe we will see a clear result until many days after November 3.  The resulting uncertainty and potentially extreme actions by the political parties and the media in the U.S. could lead to an impact on the POG.

I base this speculation on a few key State races that might prevent either candidate from reaching 270 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania is allowed to accept votes for eight additional days.  Actually, in 2016, Allegheny County did not finalize their counts until eight days after the election as they frantically tried to find enough votes to turn the result over to Hillary.  In the end, it would not have changed the national outcome so they ended the effort.  However, Biden has nearly committed suicide in PA with his comments on fracking and the riots over the past several days in Philadelphia, so that race will be very close.

Similarly, Nevada is generally a Dem State, and can accept votes 7 days after the election - but this year the Dem governor has shut down the convention business in Las Vegas due to his COVID response.  This lessens the ability of the unions at the casinos to implement their usual "get out the vote" process.  Nevada was very close in 2016 and will be again.

For his part, Trump has hurt his chances badly in Wisconsin due to his COVID statements ("turning the corner, vaccine close, therapies working") while that State is an absolute mess with new virus cases.  In Michigan, I think the Dem machine (Gov. Whitmer, etc.) will ensure a Biden win there.

I think the other States will be held by the 2016 winners (possible exceptions Minnesota due to the riots there, and New Hampshire).

There are many variables this year that did not exist in 2016 and are impossible for pollsters to accurately quantify and predict.  For example, there are many more mail-in votes this year, the majority by Dems due to COVID fears and the Dem support of that effort.  That will cost perhaps 500,000 votes for Biden due to incomplete ballots or votes that are not delivered in time.  Offsetting that are Trump votes from senior citizens that will not be made in person due to COVID fears.  The changes in minority approval rates for Trump is an unknown, but will help him to some degree.  Enthusiasm levels related to Biden are in the toilet, but enthusiasm levels both pro and anti-Trump are astronomical.  The youth vote (college level) will not be there for Biden because the schools are all on remote learning - no way to transport busloads of voters from a single school location to the polls.  The same for churches in some blue States that are not allowing services at this time - many Dem votes come from churches that bus members right from election day services to the polls.  No way to know how many youth and church votes transitioned to mail-in or in-person voting.

Polls do not give us much of the story anyway.  In 2016 Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% (2.9 million votes).  However, she won 5 States (NY CA IL MA MD) by 8.6 million votes.  The other 45 States she lost by a combined 5.7 million and lost the electoral college by a lot.  This year, Joe Biden will win the popular vote, but if not by more than 4% could lose the electoral college again.  As a result, in order to get a good estimate of how things will go, we need to offset any polls showing Biden ahead by 4%, then try to adjust for the other factors above, then look at how weather might impact turnout on election day, etc.  Some polls could be close to the actual, but I think it would be by luck.

Intermediate term, if the race is decided by the courts, particularly SCOTUS, I would look for an extended period of unrest and a longer, more pronounced impact on gold prices. 

Hope your chosen candidates do well.

Do your own DD.  I have no way to predict all of the variables either!

[stockzorg]

I'm still thinking the election fallout will be pretty ugly.  Wayne County, Michigan dropped 138k votes for Biden overnight with no votes going to any of the other candidates.  Nevada sits with a difference of only 8k votes as of this morning.  Trump can win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina but still lose the election, so those States become irrelevant. Since the Senate

[gratvalyou]

How many did Trump get overnite? curious Grat

[Countrygent]

Doug, don’t know what the basis of lawsuits would be:  don’t count mailed ballots received by Election Day in accordance with state law, or don’t count postmarked Election Day ballots received later, also in accordance with state law? Nobody should be surprised late-counted mailed ballots tip towards the Democrats when the President politicized mailed ballots negatively.  Curious

[Countrygent]

One more comment:  Arizona. Do you think Trump’s disrespect for John McCain and his widow was a very indulgent and petulant expression of personal animosity that might have cost him the election?  “McCain’s Revenge”? cg

[stockzorg]

The Constitution mandates that States choose their electors based on laws passed by the State Legislators.  That did not happen in several States this year, as judges dictated changes to those laws very late in the game.  Judges may advise that the laws need to be reviewed and updated by the legislatures, but not actually dictate the new rules.  And so all of those cases will

[amxjavelin]

great posts Stockzorg DEMS trying to steal the election again But wont work 

[stockzorg]

I think Biden will hit 270 electoral votes on the nose today.  Trump has too large a lead in Pennsylvania to overcome.  Same is true in Georgia I believe - 50k votes left to count and Trump leads by 100k.  North Carolina was at 95% complete with Trump up by 70k, but the remaining areas to come in were mostly Trump strongholds.  So that leaves MI, WI, NV added to his 238 or

[stockzorg]

lol, you are correct on the polling - it wasn't merely wrong, it was criminally negligent.  So far outside the margin of error at the State level that it was clearly manipulated. In South Carolina Lindsay Graham was in a dead heat for his Senate seat according to the polls.  His competitor raised a record $100 million + to unseat him.  The vote ended with Graham keeping his

[stockzorg]

The great thing about Biden is that there will be massive stimulus which should hurt the U. S. dollar and give a boost to gold, if (and that's a big "if") he can get it through the Senate.  However, with the pandemic moving into the winter months there should be enough pressure for a large package to be passed.  I'm looking for a healthy stock market rally and uptrends

[Countrygent]

I’m guessing 90% plus of the readers of this BB agree with you on the effect of stimulus on gold!  But apparently my grip on polling is awful. As for the election polling, even if you have your reasons to be a committed Trump voter, if you are reasonable surely you’ll agree he is a pathological liar, often for no reason other than ego and vanity, trolling, boasting.  The stupid lies

[HornbyBay]

CG - Go pedal your leftist b.s. elsewhere.

[HornbyBay]

Correction:  There is nothing good about Biden/Harris unless you are stupid enough to support a socialist/communist future.  Sad that so many idiots in America support Marxism and criminality.

[stockzorg]

Trying to stay away from comments re: policies and personalities unless it will impact gold price. I actually don't really care who wins since I have good positioning in my portfolio for either contingency. One thing I failed to mention when it comes to litigation.  To use Wisconsin as an example, there are 3.684 million voters registered in the State.  There was a court case

[Alaska74]

stockzorg. Your worry about this election stretching way out there is mine as well. The animosity between the two sides is getting dangerously intense. Never in my life seen such hatred openly displayed. Some of the protests have had openly armed participants on both sides. People need to step down from this kind of confrontation!

[StockAudit]

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