RE:$2 CAD per share in cash and no debtI liked this release and I have started to layer back into my old position. Opex guidance of US$26 / bbl vs US$34 / bbl in Q3 2023 is the most intriguing piece of guidance and has been my largest concern. An opex difference of US$8/bbl is a ~C$85mm delta to cash flow which is huge! They wouldn't release a number like this unless they were confident from Q4 results so I am buying what they are selling.
At US$75/bbl brent the Analysts are calling for C$3.50 in cash by year end 2024 (not $4.00 but still impressive). There is a lot of levergae here to the oil price which if you don't believe in a $70-$90/bbl world in 2024 you shouldn't invest in any oil stock.
The only concern I have is the reerve report. Last year it spit out negative PDP NPV's on certain fields and the market punished the stock when it came out. This year those numbers should have improved due to drilling but the commodity price is down so I think there will be marginal improvement. If they finished their tax work and figure out they can use those Kris pools the NPV's should be drastically higher. I doubt the market will be sharp enough to catch on to this in real time so will wait for the reserve report in March to take down a larger position. GLTA