RE: RE: Define 170/mtu break even Thanks Flow23,
I went ahead and put some number's from the scoping study to my NPV calculator.
on site operating costs were $32,5 per tonne ore. Taking into account throughput is going to be only half of the scoping study, costs rise to approx $39/t.
W grade 0,45%, dilution 10%, recovery 70%, this translates to $135/ MTU. It is easy to see that inflation etc takes the costs to $150/MTU as company guides.
However, taking into account the moly by products costs are $100/MTU. If that cost goes to 150-170/MTU the economics take a huge hit.
As a side note, their scoping study said APT conversion costs $2/t ore or ~6 MTU. I don't see that APT plant margin could be more than $20/MTU in the long run. It would be too good business otherwise, anyone can build APT plant.
NPV8 was $481m for the whole project using declining W prices (long term 300 per mtu).
But if I increase costs after by-product credits to 170/MTU after tax NPV8 drops to $310m
I didn't bother to model everything to the finest detail, but this should be in the ball park.