XBC $7.70 leading into Q3 results (my take)Following the May 13th Q1 results I posted the following remarks:
1. I think we'll be mostly in a wait-and-see pattern between now and Q2 results. As such, I expect the XBC to mostly trade in a 3.50 - 4.25 range between now and then - perhaps with short-term spikes on good news (i.e. COO etc).
Comment: May 13th we had a close of 3.65 following Q1 results and on May 19th a close of 5.01 following the announcement of the COO and VP Global Ops. This was followed by a second modestly higher close of 5.22 on May 26th, following the "Supply Agreement for Hydrogen Fueling Station in the Netherlands".
Afterwards the sp progressively treaded downwards to today's 3.63 close. When looking at the 3-month graph the call wasn't half bad. 2. In a second post I wrote "One strategy that may work for XBC retail investors holding XBC in non-registered accounts, if they expect the so not to rise - or only rise modestly - would be to sell at current sp, thereby locking in a capital gains loss (if purchased a a higher sp than now) and to buy back in 30+ days. As such, any future capital gains could then be deducted against the loss. The risk is that XBC's sp could rise and that those having sold will have to buy back at a higher price but its a risk/reward approach that needs to be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Thoughts welcome." Comment: This <strategy> wasn't particularly well received by a few - especially after the sp rapidly shot back up to $5+ following the announcement of the COO but had someone sold his 'non-registered' position, over that week, he could have done so at an average of roughly 4.33. This wouldn't have been a bad decision for those having purchased in around the $10 mark. Buying back anytime following the 30 day period would have seen them do so around 4.25 (Jun 14th) and today's 3.63, or at an average of 3.93. I know this was a long shot but, in this case, would have worked out nicely.
3. Also on May 13th I wrote that "...pending Q2 $30M results, I expect we'll be back around 7.70 by Q3 results. If we hit Q3 $30M+ I'd say we'll then be back in double-digit territory." Comment: I expect Q2 results to be slightly under the $30M mark - perhaps $27M - but still stick to my Q3 7.70 sp target. I expect the sp to continue having a bumpy ride between now and end-Sept but to nicely progress towards the 7.70 target thereafter - until mid-Nov Q3 resutls come out.
In short, we're not quite out of the woods yet, but over the course of Sept we'll probably tread in the $4-$5 range, before taking a more convincing upwards trend thereafter - culminating at 7.70 around Nov 18th. So, if I had more cash to put on XBC I'd wait for A2 results to come through and buy on weakness, anything I could afford under $4.
My two cents for this week.