Yangarra Resources Ltd YGRAF

Extra 1k oil

[cfliesser]

The way I see it around an extra 1k BBl of oil per day. For a quarter that's around $9M of extra revenue.

To me that's a game changer.

[kavern23]

Cliff...Petrus just announced they got 300 more boe per day for feb joint interest wells. kinda vague on why or what triggered more interest. Jan was also not that high. I don't they will report 1k higher for q1 on oil. I have a range of 2400-2800 on oil but so hard too tell right now with jv wells producing so much. But posttive for ygr from Petrus monthly update is Petrus caped is pretty

[kavern23]

Why I suspect ygr could show a cheap capex is Petrus shows 5.7m capex for feb and march added up. During this time have interests in like 2 orlens and 6 ygr wells. using a persons brain can tell someone wells were put on very cheap.    

[cfliesser]

My model has 2k oil in Q4 and 2.8k in Q1. So a 0.8k increase in Q1.  I meant to say that for 3 months following Jan (feb-apr) should be a 1k increase. So even if those wells drop off, still getting avg of 1k extra over a 3 month period.

[kavern23]

And it you modeled Petrus with same process on how you model ygr, Petrus production numbers would be a lot lower than the production Petrus releases in their monthly updates. Ygr wouldn't have had any high individual joint venture wells in q4 so easy to model accurate. Ygr is operator of wells so it has too have well reporting of whole well and then it's is split on working percent

[Helloworld]

Petrus oil was revised upwards by 200 bbl/d oil in Feb and stayed flat for March. Seems to suggest they have a 20% stake in boomer wells maybe after the initial first little bit of production. Would put YGR oil production at  Jan: 2100 bbl/d Feb: 3100 bbl/d Mar: 2800 bbl/d  Average: 2700 bbl/d.  An 800 bbl/d jump compared to Q4 and great start to year.  Also they tied in

[cfliesser]

This is reasonable, I have: Jan: 2050 bbl/d Feb: 3350 bbl/d Mar: 3000 bbl/d  Average: 2800 bbl/d.  Kavern, unfortunately the data I get has Petrus around 1k total production so it is clearly missing data. Not sure what is the problem , JVs etc. All I know is that YGR data has been very close over past 3 years

[Hendrick3]

I just confirmed with management that YGR's working interest in those 2 great Ferrier well is 50%. Might want to temper expectations.