RE: Falling Share Price Volume's not super high. but it looks like naysayers are having an impact. Problem is JAG is having trouble turning a profit and some gold analysts call its assets "mediocre." It is supposed to make a profit in 2012. I did a fair bit of research today and most analysts still think some kind of merger will happen. If it is happening, the time length seems about right since the Shandong offer was "exploratory" and no paperwork was done. I did read one analyst though who said that the Shandong offer was "testing the waters" to see how the Can govt would act since the Chinese are still feeling burned by the govts blocking of the Noranda takeover. Another analyst said that though JAG is struggling, it's underpriced compared with similar gold companies. JAG itself said (I guess, they implied that) other companies are making offers, but also said that the outcome of the strategic review might not end in a deal. Here's what Goldsmith said in Bloomberg and also something similar in Mining Review:
"Still, Jaguar may be cheap for a reason, according to John Goldsmith, a Toronto-based fund manager at Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc., which oversees about C$4.9 billion ($4.8 billion).
“They’ve overpromised and under-delivered,” Goldsmith said in a phone interview. “The assets in Brazil are small in nature, were supposed to be scalable but weren’t. What the Chinese see in this asset I have no idea"
On the other hand a fair number of options were traded at the end of Jan betting on a $10 price.
So my conclsuion (in for about $100k) is that it's not a sure thing. I'm wondering about my investment. too. I'm feeling stuck. Always a bad place to be when the stock is going down!!!