RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:$45 by year end?zalmonella wrote: I hope ur right because I've been sucked in. All ways wanted some ENGH but the price seemed too high Don't like grabbing the proverbial knife and technically looks like it could drop to as low as 30s but on the other hand at some point u take ur chances
Ya, I don't know that this is a falling knife, but it would be nice to time the market as best you can. It's still a good business, just has been overrated lately. And if enough other tech stocks have come off in the latest round of market-bashing, perhaps ENGH might be thinking now about stepping back in to the acquisitions field.
Check my thinking: unsuccessful earnings reports always lead to a decline in price of a week or two - sometimes more if market conditions have fundamentally changed (which in ENGH's case they haven't). So we should see prices under pressure right to the end of the year. I doubt there's been much margin on ENGH, but who knows - there might have been, so there would be a little bit of year-end pressure as well. That has to be settled by the 29th.
But because everybody else knows this, they will also be loopking to increase their holdings the lower prices fall, so demand (and prices) wil be under pressure. When is the point of maximum low?
I'm going to say Christmas Eve, which is a short day, and one when hardly anyone e is paying attention. I may see about averaging down then, as I have some spare cash from other more successful turnovers. It could possibly fall lower after Christmas and before the New Year, but will it?
Thoughts welcome.
My apologies thought you were a short-basher rather than a shareholder, would have responded differently.
Special dividend I would just factor as a one time event. It is difficult for companies on the front of deals before they are signed other than saying they are in discussions. In terms of future M&A it is difficult to know in advance or how the (assumed to be ongoing) review will go. I dont know how quickly markets transfer other than public and private markets arent always correlated.
I am not going to speculate on the direction of SP. Other than near term would be valuation multiple based changes.
Not asking for numbers but consider the likelyhoods of the assumed review (if it is occuring), leads to a sale of companies or assets, positive changes occur in the near term, doesnt lead to changes, purchases accelerate, stay at the current rate. Might help how you think about ENGH not necessarily asking for a breakdown.
An unrelated point but I will tell you about my biggest win and loss all in the same company. Dorel I bought originally at 30 averaged down to ~6 acb with a purchase at 1.40. I sold at 14.50 or roughly a 50% loss. Big purchaser lost, tarriffs, covid a management buyout offer which is the point I sold. Dropped back to 10 and a segment was sold under a year after management said they were not interested in selling individual segments and by the next day it was at 20.
The point I was making as if there are assets supporting a valuation as a SOTP (Sum of the parts) or liquidation it can back a possible recovery. Enghouse has SOTP (analyst notes have a base model) but other tech or materials does not. something speculative in nature like Ballard BLDP which tripled over a year and lost the gains in 3 months with an extreme fundemental valuation may not.
Hope everyone makes money and learns from their experiences.